The Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied about 92 percent of Nigeria’s petrol in February, following a pause in fuel import licences by the Federal Government, official sources said Tuesday.
The surge in domestic supply represents a sharp shift from years of heavy reliance on imported fuel. Figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show local refineries delivered 36.5 million litres of petrol per day in February, while imports contributed only three million litres daily, bringing total national supply to 39.5 million litres per day.
“It is correct that we have not issued import licences this year. Domestic production now meets national requirements,” an NMDPRA official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Dominance of local refining
Currently, the Dangote refinery is the country’s only facility producing petrol at scale, while other modular refineries mainly produce diesel. The Dangote plant operates at full capacity, refining 650,000 barrels per day, and supplied over 50 million litres of petrol daily in early 2026.
The February figures reflect a 39.1 percent drop in overall petrol supply compared with January, when total daily supply reached 64.9 million litres. This decline stems from the near-complete halt of imports, which fell from 24.8 million litres per day in January to just three million litres per day in February – an 88 percent reduction.
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According to industry sources, the government’s decision to suspend fuel import licences comes amid growing confidence in local refining capacity. NMDPRA officials said the country no longer needs to rely on imported petrol to meet domestic demand.
Market and policy implications
The shift toward domestic supply signals a major restructuring of Nigeria’s downstream sector, potentially reducing foreign exchange outflows for fuel imports. Analysts say the dominance of the Dangote refinery could reshape the competitive landscape but also raise concerns about monopolistic tendencies in the market.
One industry operator, who spoke anonymously, warned that “Dangote is gradually enjoying a monopoly in the downstream sector. It won’t be in the interest of the country to allow such concentration.”
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The surge in local production follows years of volatility in Nigeria’s petrol supply. In 2025, imports historically supplied a large share of petrol, peaking at 52.1 million litres per day in November. However, the Dangote refinery’s output steadily increased, doubling domestic supply to 32 million litres per day by December 2025, reducing reliance on imports.
Government and industry response
The NMDPRA has indicated that import licences will remain suspended until domestic refineries can meet demand reliably. Multiple sources confirmed no approvals have been granted for 2026.
The Dangote refinery has pledged to maintain adequate supply amid rising fuel prices, linked in part to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The company’s management said it was committed to meeting Nigeria’s daily fuel needs despite reduced imports.
“This demonstrates the potential of local refining to meet national demand and reduce dependence on imports,” the refinery said.
As Nigeria continues to expand its refining capacity, industry observers will watch closely to see how the balance between domestic production and imports evolves, and whether the current dominance of a single facility raises competitive or regulatory concerns.
