Demand for Dangote Industries Limited fertiliser has soared as the ongoing US–Israel conflict with Iran disrupts global supply chains, highlighting Africa’s vulnerability to international market shocks. The surge was confirmed by the company’s Vice President of Oil & Gas, Devakumar Edwin, who told Bloomberg that demand had “gone up substantially due to the shortage in the global market.”
A significant portion of fertiliser shipments from Iran, including urea and ammonia, passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has seen halted traffic amid the conflict. Rising natural gas prices, a key input in fertiliser production, have further tightened global supply. As a result, Africa’s dependence on imports more than six million metric tonnes annually has become increasingly costly for farmers and governments seeking to maintain food security.
Dangote’s fertiliser plant, located in Nigeria, is Africa’s largest granulated urea facility, with an annual production capacity of around three million tonnes of urea and ammonia. Currently, about 37 percent of its output is exported to the United States. The company has previously announced its ambition to become the world’s largest urea exporter within four years, positioning itself as a stabilising force in global and regional markets.
Last June, Aliko Dangote unveiled plans to expand the US$2.5 billion plant, a move expected to significantly boost production capacity. The expansion aims to reduce Africa’s reliance on imported fertiliser, strengthen self-sufficiency in agricultural inputs, and ensure more stable supplies for farmers across the continent. “The continent could become self-sufficient in fertiliser production within 40 months,” Dangote said at the time.
The company has projected that in the next two years it will export about 16,000 tonnes of fertiliser daily, generating between US$6.5 million and US$7 million in revenue per day for Nigeria. “With our export programme, our company will be the major supplier of foreign exchange earnings in Nigeria,” Dangote said during a courtesy visit to the Nigerian Ports Authority headquarters in Lagos. Analysts say these exports could provide a critical source of revenue while cushioning Nigeria against global market volatility.
The surge in demand comes as African governments and farmers scramble to secure fertiliser amid rising international prices and supply disruptions. Local producers, like Dangote, stand to benefit from the regional shortage while helping mitigate some of the continent’s dependence on imports, which has historically slowed agricultural growth and exposed farmers to external shocks.
Edwin stressed that the increase in demand is not only a commercial opportunity but also a strategic moment for Africa’s agricultural sector. The expansion of domestic fertiliser production is expected to enhance food security, improve farm yields, and strengthen regional resilience to global crises. “The current shortage highlights the need for Africa to build capacity in essential commodities,” he said.
Beyond supply and revenue, Dangote’s initiative is expected to generate thousands of jobs directly and indirectly, while providing a model for industrial-scale agricultural inputs production on the continent. By combining mechanised production, modern fertiliser technology, and strategic exports, the company aims to solidify its role as a leading player in global urea markets.
The ongoing geopolitical tensions underscore the fragility of global fertiliser supply chains and the strategic importance of local production in Africa. With the US–Iran conflict disrupting exports and raising costs, African farmers and governments are increasingly looking to domestic and regional suppliers like Dangote to fill the gap, making the company’s expansion a timely and critical intervention.
