Djibouti’s long-serving leader Ismail Omar Guelleh is widely expected to secure a sixth term in Friday’s presidential election, extending his grip on power after recent constitutional changes removed age limits that would have barred his candidacy.
Guelleh, 78, has ruled the small Horn of Africa nation since 1999 and faces only a single challenger, Mohamed Farah Samatar, in a race seen by analysts as heavily tilted in favour of the incumbent.
Parliament voted in October to scrap the presidential age cap of 75 and remove the requirement for a referendum to approve constitutional changes, clearing the path for Guelleh to run again.
The vote takes place in the strategically located state of Djibouti, which sits at the southern entrance to the Red Sea along the Gulf of Aden — one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors.
Despite its population of under one million, Djibouti hosts multiple foreign military bases, including those of the United States, China, France, Italy and Japan, underscoring its geopolitical importance. The country has also served as a key docking point for commercial vessels damaged in attacks linked to Yemen’s Houthi rebels in recent years.
Guelleh, who succeeded his uncle Hassan Gouled Aptidon, has presided over relative stability in a volatile region, contrasting with unrest in neighbouring Somalia and Ethiopia.
Under his leadership, Djibouti has invested heavily in port and logistics infrastructure, positioning itself as a critical trade gateway for landlocked Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous nation.
“Let us remember we have managed to maintain the stability of our country in an unstable region. We have preserved peace when others have descended into chaos,” Guelleh said in remarks last month.
He has dominated Djiboutian politics for more than two decades, winning five previous elections — all by large margins. In the last vote in 2021, he secured more than 97 percent of ballots cast.
However, his long tenure has drawn criticism from human rights organisations, which accuse authorities of repressing political opposition, curbing press freedoms and restricting civic space. Two major opposition parties have boycotted elections since 2016, citing concerns over the independence of electoral institutions.
The government has consistently rejected such allegations, defending its record and the credibility of the electoral process.
Samatar, representing the small Unified Democratic Centre party, has campaigned on promises to tackle corruption, reduce government spending and increase investment in social services. His party, however, lacks representation in parliament, highlighting the uphill battle he faces.
Djibouti has seen limited public dissent in recent years, though security forces in 2020 dispersed rare anti-government protests triggered by the arrest of a former air force officer who had criticised alleged corruption and discrimination.
Friday’s vote is expected to proceed peacefully, with observers pointing to the country’s tightly controlled political environment and the absence of strong opposition mobilisation.
If confirmed, Guelleh’s re-election would further entrench one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders, raising renewed questions over political pluralism in the region, even as Djibouti maintains its reputation for stability and strategic relevance on the global stage.
