The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is confronting new fiscal pressures as the Congolese franc strengthens, reducing the local value of foreign-financed projects and creating an US$836 million shortfall in the 2026 budget framework. The gap underscores the sensitivity of the government’s external financing to currency fluctuations, analysts say.
World Bank and African Development Bank (AfDB) projects, which account for more than 93 percent of externally funded programs included in the 2026 Finance Bill, are particularly affected. World Bank commitments total CDF 6,889.8 billion (US$3.01 billion), while AfDB financing amounts to CDF 1,519.9 billion (US$660 million). Though these loans are designed with exchange-rate risk in mind, disbursements are capped in foreign currency, limiting flexibility when the local currency appreciates sharply.
Budget support operations, estimated at CDF 3,800 billion in 2026, are especially impacted. At a stronger exchange rate, each dollar now converts into fewer Congolese francs, constraining the government’s ability to fund planned expenditures without tapping additional external resources.
The 2026 Finance Bill, overseen by Finance Minister Doudou Roussel Fwamba Likunde Li-Botayi, originally projected CDF 9,010.4 billion in external project financing based on a reference exchange rate of CDF 2,900 per US dollar. This corresponded to roughly US$3.106 billion. By January 2026, the franc had strengthened to about CDF 2,285 per dollar, meaning generating the same local-currency funding would require nearly US$3.942 billion, leaving a theoretical US$836 million (US$704 million) exchange-rate gap.
In this context, the DRC’s planned US$750 million Eurobond, expected in April 2026, is increasingly viewed not merely as a symbolic market debut, but as a strategic tool to restore liquidity, complement multilateral financing, and absorb exchange-rate-related shortfalls without disrupting ongoing projects.
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The country enters international capital markets with supportive macroeconomic fundamentals. Copper, the DRC’s main export, traded above US$13,238 per tonne in January 2026 on the London Metal Exchange, with analysts projecting potential gains toward $15,000 per tonne by year-end due to structural supply deficits linked to the global energy transition. Cobalt prices have surged 131 percent year-on-year, while gold trades above US$4,600 per ounce, with forecasts pointing to further gains.
Institutional assessments are also favorable. The IMF’s January 2026 review rated programme implementation as broadly satisfactory, and S&P Global Ratings revised the DRC’s sovereign outlook to Positive, noting public debt has fallen to around 18.5 percent of GDP one of the lowest levels in Sub-Saharan Africa.
For investors, the central question will be how the DRC balances exchange-rate stability, multilateral project financing, and commercial debt management in 2026. While the $836 million gap does not represent an immediate cash shortfall, it highlights the structural challenges a stronger franc poses to budget execution. Analysts suggest that the Eurobond issuance, if well managed, could allow the authorities to deploy market instruments to maintain fiscal discipline while cushioning the impact of currency appreciation on externally funded programs.
