Egypt targets 40% debt-to-GDP ratio in 2025/26

Africa

Egypt aims to cut its public and external debt burden, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 40 percent or below by the end of the 2025–26 fiscal year, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly has said.

Speaking after the weekly cabinet meeting, Madbouly said the country’s external debt-to-GDP ratio currently stands at 44 percent, which he described as within the internationally accepted “safe range” of 40–45 percent. He added that the government plans to reduce the ratio through tighter fiscal discipline and the use of debt-for-investment and debt-for-development swaps.

The prime minister highlighted efforts to boost non-oil exports to support foreign-currency inflows and ease pressure on public finances. He urged export councils to prepare plans to raise non-oil exports by 15–20 percent annually through 2030, as part of a broader strategy to double total exports. Non-oil exports reached about 40 billion dollars in 2024, with total exports expected to rise to 48–50 billion dollars in 2025.

Madbouly also outlined plans to expand “real estate exports” the sale of property to foreign buyers in hard currency as a means to stabilise foreign-exchange inflows. New incentives are being prepared to attract foreign buyers, and the government is expanding the Official Egyptian Real Estate Platform to include more cities, enabling verified digital property purchases.

He noted that Egypt is introducing a Unified National Real Estate Identification law, aimed at creating a nationwide digital property registry, improving transparency, facilitating tax collection, and curbing illegal construction, thereby reassuring foreign investors.

Egypt has faced a persistent dollar shortage since the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, which disrupted capital inflows and tourism revenues. The country signed a 3 billion dollar IMF agreement that year and later published strategic reforms to allow foreigners to buy property in exchange for residency.

Foreign-currency inflows matched expenditures in March 2025 for the first time in years, supported by rising reserves and a 35 billion dollar investment deal with the UAE for the Ras El-Hekma coastal development. Real estate exports totalled about 550 million dollars in January 2025, with Egypt ranking as the Middle East and North Africa’s third-largest construction hub by October after Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Madbouly said greater efforts were needed to attract foreign buyers, noting rapid growth in construction, rising demand for materials and qualified contractors, and increasing interest from international investors. Draft regulations were discussed to protect serious developers while curbing speculative or non-compliant activity.

Egypt has faced recurring pressures on its public finances and foreign-currency reserves over the past decade, driven by high fiscal deficits, large infrastructure spending, and reliance on imports for energy and consumer goods. The government’s debt-to-GDP ratio has fluctuated between 80–100 percent in recent years, with external debt accounting for a growing share due to borrowing from international markets, multilateral lenders, and bilateral partners.

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