Analysts caution that the United States may be underestimating the challenges of its ongoing military operation in Iran, despite official claims that the campaign will last only “four to five weeks” and will not turn into another “forever war.”
Since the launch of “Operation Epic Fury” last weekend, which included precision airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Washington has sought to reassure the public that the conflict will be swift and contained.
President Donald Trump and senior officials, including Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth, have repeatedly emphasized that the campaign will not resemble protracted conflicts such as those in Afghanistan or Iraq, which drew heavy U.S. casualties and sparked widespread domestic opposition.
But foreign policy experts warn the reality could be far more complex. “What we’re seeing is going to be more complicated than the White House may have hoped,” said Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.
Maloney noted that while the initial strikes were militarily effective, including the elimination of Iran’s supreme leader and substantial damage to its military infrastructure, the aftermath is likely to see a significant escalation. “The Iranians are escalating across the region, and that is their long-standing game plan. I am not optimistic that we’re going to see a quick end to this conflict,” she said.
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The attacks targeted leadership and strategic military sites in Tehran and other key locations, signaling the start of a broad campaign aimed at degrading Iran’s defensive capabilities. However, analysts warn that Tehran’s military, paramilitary and proxy networks across the Middle East could draw the United States into a sustained confrontation, with the potential to affect regional security and global energy markets.
Public support in the United States remains limited. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found only about 25 percent of Americans support the strikes, and protests have erupted in Washington, reflecting widespread concern over the human and economic costs of a deeper engagement. Trump’s MAGA base, which prioritizes domestic economic and political issues, is particularly wary of a prolonged military entanglement abroad.
“Although the initial operations were successful, the day after is going to be immensely complicated,” Maloney said. “There is a high risk of getting bogged down if the Iranian regime proves more resilient than expected, particularly with its regional allies and asymmetrical capabilities.”
Observers warn that U.S. planners may have underestimated the difficulty of achieving strategic objectives quickly. Military campaigns aimed at regime change or large-scale incapacitation of a nation-state often face prolonged resistance, especially when adversaries are deeply entrenched and capable of unconventional warfare.
Experts say the situation underscores a broader challenge for U.S. foreign policy: balancing rapid military action with political and logistical constraints, while managing public opinion at home. The next few weeks will be critical in determining whether the conflict escalates into a protracted engagement or remains contained within the White House’s projected timeline.
