ExxonMobil has raised its corporate outlook through 2030, projecting stronger earnings and cash-flow growth on the back of higher upstream performance, lower costs and improved efficiency all achieved without increasing its capital spending plans, the US oil major said on Wednesday.
The company now expects to generate an additional US$25 billion in earnings and US$35 billion in cash flow by 2030, each figure revised up by US$5 billion from earlier forecasts, based on constant prices and margins. ExxonMobil said return on capital employed is set to exceed 17 percent by the end of the decade, supported by structural cost savings that have been expanded to US$20 billion compared to 2019 levels.
A substantial share of the revised outlook is tied to the group’s upstream operations. ExxonMobil is forecasting more than US$14 billion in additional upstream earnings by 2030, a US$5-billion increase from its previous plan. The gains will come as production rises in the Permian Basin, Guyana and across the company’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) portfolio. Total output is projected to reach 5.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) by 2030, with so-called advantaged barrels typically lower-cost and lower-emission assets accounting for around 65 percent of volumes.
Permian growth remains a centrepiece of the strategy. ExxonMobil said it expects production from the basin to reach about 2.5 million boe/d by 2030, roughly double 2024 levels, reflecting improved capital efficiency and new technological gains. The company also highlighted the benefits of its US$60-billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, saying synergies are now expected to reach US$4 billion annually double what was previously estimated.
The oil major said that proprietary drilling and completion technologies were increasing recoveries while a sweeping internal reorganisation has lowered unit costs and lifted upstream margins. Unit earnings excluding special items are projected to exceed US$15 per barrel by 2030, nearly three times 2019 levels.
ExxonMobil reaffirmed its commitment to expanding its LNG business and investing in low-carbon technologies, including carbon capture and storage. The company added that all corporate greenhouse-gas emissions-intensity targets set for 2030 are now expected to be reached by 2026, four years ahead of schedule.
At a Brent benchmark price of US$65 per barrel, ExxonMobil expects to generate about US$145 billion in cumulative surplus cash flow through 2030, supporting dividends, share buybacks and what it described as disciplined reinvestment across its global portfolio.
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ExxonMobil’s revised outlook comes at a time when the world’s largest international oil companies are under intensifying pressure to balance energy security, shareholder returns and long-term climate goals. The company, one of the last of the Western supermajors to maintain a strong emphasis on oil production growth, has pursued a strategy focused on advantaged assets fields with lower extraction costs and reduced emissions intensity.
The Permian Basin and Guyana have become central pillars of that strategy. In the Permian, ExxonMobil has rapidly scaled up drilling efficiency and well productivity, helped by its 2024 acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, which strengthened its position as the basin’s largest producer. Guyana, where ExxonMobil leads a consortium developing giant offshore fields, has emerged as one of the fastest-growing oil provinces globally, with production expected to continue rising well into the next decade.
The company’s expanded LNG ambitions follow rising global demand for natural gas, which many governments see as a transition fuel amid efforts to shift away from coal. ExxonMobil is advancing major LNG projects in the United States, Qatar, Mozambique and Papua New Guinea.
At the same time, ExxonMobil has sought to position itself as a leader in carbon capture and storage (CCS), arguing that large-scale CCS will be critical to meeting global climate goals. The company has invested heavily in CCS hubs along the US Gulf Coast and has pushed for supportive policy frameworks.
Despite these efforts, the company continues to face criticism from environmental groups and some investors who say its long-term strategy remains too heavily weighted toward oil and gas. ExxonMobil has countered that global energy demand particularly in emerging markets will require continued investment in hydrocarbons even as renewables expand.
The company’s latest guidance underscores its view that disciplined capital allocation, cost reductions and technological advancements can deliver strong returns through 2030, while maintaining flexibility to adapt to market and policy shifts.
