Export revenues in Central Africa are coming under renewed strain as falling cocoa and oil prices weigh on the region’s commodity-dependent economies, according to new data from the Bank of Central African States (BEAC).
The central bank said agricultural export prices in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community fell by fourteen point five percent in the fourth quarter of two thousand and twenty-five, based on its Composite Commodity Price Index (ICCPB). The decline was steeper than the ten point three percent drop recorded in the previous quarter, reflecting increasingly difficult conditions across global agricultural markets.
Cocoa, a key export for several CEMAC member states, was a major contributor to the downturn. Prices fell by twenty-one point three percent over the period, marking the sharpest decline among tracked agricultural commodities. Sugar prices dropped by ten point seven percent, rubber by six percent and cotton by four point three percent.
BEAC said the fall in agricultural prices was linked to broad-based weakness across international commodity markets. For economies that rely heavily on primary exports, the shift raises concerns about export revenues, fiscal receipts and foreign exchange inflows. Lower commodity prices can directly affect trade balances, government budgets and external reserves, particularly in countries with limited diversification.
The downturn extended beyond agriculture. Energy prices, which had risen modestly in the third quarter, reversed course in the final three months of the year. BEAC reported that energy product prices fell by six point four percent in the fourth quarter, after increasing by one point three percent in the previous quarter. The decline was attributed to simultaneous drops in crude oil and natural gas prices on global markets.
For CEMAC countries such as Cameroon, Gabon, and Republic of the Congo, where hydrocarbons account for a substantial share of export earnings and fiscal revenues, the energy price decline represents an additional source of vulnerability. Oil remains a cornerstone of public finances and foreign currency generation in several member states.
Overall, BEAC said the ICCPB index fell by nine point five percent between October and December two thousand and twenty-five, extending a downward trend that began in the second quarter of the year. The central bank attributed the sustained decline to “the simultaneous fall in energy and non-energy products,” pointing to uncertain global macroeconomic conditions and ongoing supply-demand adjustments in various commodity markets.
The ICCPB tracks the prices of twenty commodities exported by CEMAC countries and represents approximately ninety percent of the region’s total export value. The basket includes energy products, metals and minerals, forest products, agricultural goods and fisheries. As such, the index serves as an early indicator of price conditions affecting the bloc’s external sector.
Analysts say sustained declines in commodity prices could pressure regional foreign exchange reserves and complicate fiscal planning, particularly as governments seek to maintain public investment and social spending. For the CEMAC region, where economic diversification efforts are ongoing but incomplete, external shocks to commodity markets continue to pose structural risks.
The latest data underscore the region’s exposure to global price cycles. With both cocoa and oil under pressure, Central Africa faces a challenging external environment that may test macroeconomic stability and reinforce the urgency of broadening its export base beyond raw commodities.
