The global financial cost of food waste is expected to climb to US$540 billion in 2026, up from an estimated US$526 billion in 2025, as inefficiencies across food supply chains continue to erode profits and exacerbate environmental and social challenges, according to a new international study.
The findings were published in early January by Avery Dennison, a labelling and packaging solutions company, in a report titled Making the Invisible Visible: Unlocking the Hidden Value of Food Waste to Drive Growth and Profitability. The study draws on a survey of nearly 3,500 senior executives and supply chain leaders in the global food retail sector, combined with economic modelling by the UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
The report highlights that food waste remains a significant but often under-measured drain on company finances, with losses concentrated in high-value and perishable product categories. Meat is projected to account for almost one-fifth of global food waste by value in 2026, translating into losses of around US$94 billion. It was cited as the single biggest challenge by 72 percent of food supply chain managers surveyed.
Fresh produce is expected to be the second-largest contributor to waste, with losses estimated at US$88 billion, followed by ready-to-eat meals at US$80 billion, dairy products at US$79 billion, and bakery goods at US$67 billion. Together, these categories account for a substantial share of the overall financial burden, reflecting their short shelf lives and sensitivity to storage and transport conditions.
According to the report, structural weaknesses within food supply chains remain the primary drivers of waste. More than half of respondents (51 percent) identified poor inventory management and overstocking as the leading causes. A further 56 percent pointed to limited visibility over losses occurring during transportation, where delays, temperature variations and handling issues can render products unsellable before they reach store shelves.
More Read
The study also notes that food waste costs have been rising in recent years due to broader economic pressures. Fifty-four percent of surveyed leaders said waste-related losses had increased over the past three years, citing food price inflation, supply disruptions and geopolitical instability. These factors have created what the report describes as a “double loss” for retailers, who face higher procurement costs while simultaneously losing revenue from unsold or discarded products.
Avery Dennison estimates that food waste represents an average cost equivalent to around 33 percent of a food retailer’s total revenue, underscoring the scale of the problem. The company argues that food waste should be viewed not only as an environmental and ethical concern, but also as a material business risk with direct implications for profitability, growth and resilience.
The report suggests that retailers are well placed to lead efforts to reduce waste by investing in better product-level tracking, improved labelling, and greater data sharing across supply chains. Enhancing visibility from production to point of sale could allow companies to better match supply with demand, extend product life, and redirect surplus food before it becomes waste.
More Read
If such measures were widely adopted, the study estimates that projected food waste-related costs could be reduced by as much as US$3.4 trillion globally by 2030, while also delivering environmental benefits through lower greenhouse gas emissions and reduced pressure on land and water resources.
The findings echo repeated warnings from international organisations about the urgency of tackling food waste. In a report published in 2024, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated that about 1.05 billion tonnes of food were wasted worldwide in 2022. Nearly 60 percent of that waste occurred at the household level, with 28 percent in food service and 12 percentat the retail stage.
The FAO has long warned that reducing food waste is critical to improving global food security, particularly at a time when roughly 8 percent of the world’s population continues to face hunger. As food prices remain volatile and climate-related shocks threaten agricultural production, analysts say cutting waste could play a central role in making food systems more efficient, affordable and sustainable.
