Ghana is stepping up efforts to attract fresh investment into its upstream petroleum sector at a difficult moment, as global crude oil prices sink to multi-year lows just when the country needs capital to halt declining production and protect fiscal stability.
Crude oil prices slipped to around US$56 per barrel in early January 2026, extending a steady fall from about US$78 a year earlier. That represents a drop of nearly 30 percent within 12 months, creating a challenging environment for oil-producing countries seeking exploration and development funding. For Ghana, the timing is particularly sensitive.
The push for new investment is being driven by aging oil fields, natural decline rates and years of delayed capital injection. The impact is already visible in production figures. Ghana’s oil output has fallen sharply from 71.4 million barrels in 2019 to an estimated 36 million barrels in 2025, raising concerns about future revenue flows.
The Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) has repeatedly warned that falling production is translating into lower-than-expected petroleum revenues. This is a major concern for a country that relies heavily on oil receipts to fund annual budgets, finance infrastructure projects and cushion the economy during periods of stress.
Global conditions are not helping. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that crude oil will average about $51 per barrel in 2026, down from US$65 in 2025 and US$77 in 2024. Analysts attribute the prolonged downturn to strong global supply, slower-than-expected demand growth and the gradual shift by major economies toward cleaner energy sources.
Low prices typically dampen investor appetite. When oil is cheap, profit margins narrow, financing becomes tighter and companies grow more cautious about committing capital, especially in markets where production costs are high or regulatory frameworks are seen as uncertain.
Despite these headwinds, Ghana is pressing ahead with plans to revive investment in exploration and production. The government has made boosting output and restoring investor confidence a central policy goal. Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson announced in the 2026 Budget that investor-focused reforms have unlocked more than US$3.5 billion in new commitments.
These include a US$2 billion framework agreement covering the Jubilee and Tweneboa Enyenra Ntomme (TEN) fields, aimed at drilling 20 new wells, as well as a US$1.5 billion memorandum of intent with partners in the Offshore Cape Three Points project to expand operations.
In addition, the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) is planning to begin drilling in the offshore Volta Basin in October 2026, opening a new frontier for domestic oil production. International players, including Shell, have expressed interest, raising hopes of fresh capital inflows and access to advanced technology.
Still, industry experts caution that price remains a decisive factor. At oil prices above US$80 per barrel, many upstream projects appear commercially attractive. At around $56, only the most efficient and low-cost developments are likely to proceed. Exploration, in particular, tends to suffer first when prices fall, as drilling new wells is expensive and carries no guarantee of success.
David Ampofo, chief executive of the Ghana Upstream Petroleum Chamber, has previously identified inadequate investment as the main cause of declining production. Although Ghana has about 14 petroleum agreements, only two fields are currently producing.
Findings from the Ghana Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (GHEITI) show that new discoveries have not kept pace with depletion. Several high-profile exploration wells have failed, dampening investor confidence, while recent licensing rounds have attracted fewer bids than expected, with some blocks receiving no interest.
Investors have also raised long-standing concerns about Ghana’s fiscal terms, particularly the scale of carried interest obligations imposed on contractors. These costs, which are not reimbursed, have made Ghana less competitive compared with other oil-producing countries in West Africa and beyond.
In response, the Ministry of Energy and Green Transition, working with the Attorney-General’s Department, the Petroleum Commission and GNPC, is reviewing aspects of the legal and fiscal framework. The aim is to make the regime more flexible, predictable and competitive in a tightening global investment climate.
Analysts note that even in weak oil markets, countries with clear rules, transparent contracts and efficient regulators can still attract long-term investors. Faster licensing, streamlined approvals and targeted incentives such as flexible royalties or temporary tax reliefs could help make projects viable even at lower prices. Gas projects linked to power generation and industry also offer more stable demand, which can appeal to investors during oil price downturns.
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While the slump in crude prices is a significant obstacle to Ghana’s upstream ambitions, it does not make investment impossible. Ultimately, confidence in the country’s regulatory environment, governance and long-term strategy may matter as much as oil prices themselves.
