Ghana’s economy is expected to accelerate next year on the back of monetary easing, tighter fiscal discipline and resilient exports, investment bank Databank said in its 2026 Outlook report released this week. Databank projects real GDP growth of 5.67% including oil and 5.95% for the non-oil sector, marking what it calls “an expansionary phase” for the economy.
“Monetary conditions are set to turn more supportive in 2026 as the central bank continues its easing cycle,” the report said, adding that two policy rate cuts are anticipated next year after ending 2025 at 19 percent. The bank said muted consumer demand in 2025 prompted the Bank of Ghana to begin loosening policy, and it expects that trend to continue “in alignment with government efforts to stimulate growth.”
Fiscal and external outlook
Databank expects Ghana’s fiscal deficit to remain contained at 2.5% of GDP by the end of 2026, assuming strict adherence to the Public Financial Management Act. Such discipline, it said, is needed to “strengthen compliance and spending efficiency across public institutions.”
The report also forecasts a current account surplus of about 3% of GDP, supported by improved market confidence, stronger trade competitiveness and robust commodity exports.
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On the currency, Databank maintains a neutral to positive outlook, forecasting a 7.2% cedi depreciation against the dollar by end 2026. “Tighter forex regulations and resilient reserve buffers should help absorb demand pressures,” it noted.
Fixed income and commodities
Investor confidence in domestic bonds has strengthened, with average yields falling to around 16% from 26% after consistent repayments and improved liquidity in repo markets.
“Looking ahead, we anticipate a modest yield steepening as the sovereign reactivates the market through re-taps and potential new issuance,” Databank said.
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The commodities outlook remains broadly supportive. Databank expects gold to maintain a bullish tone on strong physical demand and sustained central bank buying, while Brent crude is projected to trade between US$60 and US$70 per barrel. Cocoa prices, it said, should stay firm as supply stabilises in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
Stock market outlook
Databank predicts that the ongoing rally on the Ghana Stock Exchange will extend into 2026. It forecasts the GSE Composite Index to reach 13,700 points, an annual gain of about 55%. “This performance will be broad based across sectors,” the report said, citing banking, telecommunications, oil marketing companies and fast-moving consumer goods as key drivers.
Telecommunications will continue to anchor the market, with MTN Ghana expected to extend its dominance due to “strong data and MoMo momentum.” The report also highlights Benso Oil Palm Plantation (BOPP) as a standout dividend stock, supported by a new government policy aimed at expanding national oil palm production.
Databank said it remains bullish on GCB, SCB, EGH, MTNGH, TOTAL, BOPP, UNIL and FML, pointing to “positive earnings prospects and favourable dividend payouts.”
