Glencore said it will prioritise copper production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 2026, as export quotas and regulatory uncertainty continue to limit shipments of cobalt, the Swiss mining and commodities group said on Thursday.
The company issued guidance for copper production for 2026 but withheld a forecast for cobalt, saying uncertainty around export approvals and quotas in the DRC remained too high to provide reliable projections. The central African country is the world’s largest producer of cobalt, a key input for electric vehicle batteries.
Glencore produced 33,500 tonnes of cobalt in the DRC in 2025, down 5% from the previous year, but most of that output could not be exported because of restrictions imposed by Congolese authorities. In late February 2025, the government introduced an embargo on cobalt exports to address a global market surplus that had pushed prices sharply lower.
The embargo was lifted in October and replaced with an export quota system, under which producers are allocated specific volumes they are allowed to ship. However, exports did not resume before the end of 2025, as approval procedures proved slow and complex.
While unused quotas are typically not transferable, Congolese authorities allowed an exception, permitting producers to export their unused 2025 allocations until March 31, 2026. Glencore said that for 2026 it will be able to export 22,800 tonnes of cobalt, including the carried-over volumes, compared with 18,800 tonnes projected for 2027.
These volumes remain well below the combined 2025 output of Glencore’s two Congolese mines, Katanga Mining (KCC) and Mutanda, highlighting the gap between production capacity and export limits.
Without an increase in export quotas in the coming months, Glencore said it plans to stockpile surplus cobalt produced in the DRC and sell it when conditions allow. Cobalt is typically produced as a by-product of copper or nickel mining, accounting for around 99% of global output, and Glencore’s Congolese operations follow this model.
While cobalt exports face restrictions, copper shipments are not subject to similar controls, and market conditions for the red metal are increasingly supportive. Copper prices have surged on expectations of tight supply and rising demand linked to electrification, energy infrastructure and data centre expansion.
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On the London Metal Exchange, the three-month copper contract hit a record US$14,527 per tonne on Thursday, according to Reuters data. After rising more than 40 percent in 2025, copper prices have continued to set new highs in early 2026, outpacing many analysts’ earlier forecasts.
Goldman Sachs has said copper prices could reach US$15,000 per tonne by 2035, as demand is expected to outstrip supply from 2029. Consumption is forecast to rise sharply with global investment in power grids, renewable energy and data infrastructure, driven in part by artificial intelligence.
“These structural demand drivers are already being priced in,” said Neil Welsh, an analyst at Britannia Global Markets, citing growing expectations of increased spending on data centres, robotics and energy networks.
Glencore said the current price environment supports its strategy of prioritising copper production over cobalt when commercially sensible. Its Congolese mines produced 247,800 tonnes of copper in 2025, up 10% year on year, accounting for 29 percent of the group’s total copper output.
The company has not yet provided detailed country-level forecasts for 2026 but said it aims to produce up to 870,000 tonnes of copper globally, compared with 851,600 tonnes in 2025.
It remains unclear whether Glencore’s stated priority for copper in the DRC will result in higher output in the country, given operational constraints and the by-product nature of cobalt production. Analysts say any significant increase would likely depend on investment decisions and the pace of approvals by Congolese authorities.
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The DRC’s intervention in the cobalt market has drawn mixed reactions from producers and consumers, with supporters arguing that quotas could help stabilise prices, while critics warn of market distortions and reduced investment incentives.
For Glencore, the strategy underscores a shift toward metals with fewer regulatory constraints and stronger price momentum, as producers navigate an increasingly complex policy environment in resource-rich countries.
As cobalt policies remain in flux, investors and industry players will be watching closely to see whether Congolese authorities adjust quotas in 2026 a move that could reshape production and export strategies across the sector.
