India’s exports to the United States picked up in October, rising 14.5% from September despite the continuation of steep tariffs imposed by Washington. The recovery marks the first month-on-month increase in five months and comes as both countries quietly soften their trade standoff.
India’s shipments to its largest export market had plunged after the US introduced a 50% tariff on Indian goods on 27 August, including a 25% penalty linked to India’s purchase of Russian oil. The latest rebound follows two developments: New Delhi’s agreement for state-run oil companies to import more annual liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the US, and President Donald Trump’s move to exempt a range of Indian farm products from reciprocal duties.
Trade negotiations, which stalled earlier this year over India’s refusal to cut Russian crude imports, have also regained momentum. A senior Indian official told The Hindu that key elements of a phased deal are now “more or less near closure”.
Despite the October uptick, analysts warn that the damage from months of tariff pressure remains significant. Ajay Srivastava of the Global Trade Research Initiative noted that India’s exports to the US have fallen 28.4% between May and October, wiping out more than $2.5 billion in monthly export earnings. He added that tariff-exempt sectors such as smartphones and pharmaceuticals likely drove the latest improvement—though this remains an assumption.
India’s overall trade performance in October painted a weaker picture. Total goods exports fell 11.8% year-on-year, with 15 of its top 20 markets registering declines.
Still, the government is promoting its new LPG agreement with Washington as a turning point. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri described the decision to source roughly 10% of India’s annual LPG needs from the US as a “historic development”, saying it effectively opens the world’s biggest LPG consumer market to American suppliers.
The US has been pushing India to reduce its dependence on Russian oil, which surged after Western sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. India bought $52.7 billion worth of Russian crude last year, 37% of its total oil bill. Trump has repeatedly claimed that New Delhi agreed to cut these purchases, though Indian officials have not confirmed any such commitment.
Delhi is navigating sensitive diplomacy ahead of President Vladimir Putin’s expected visit next month, where several long-term energy and infrastructure agreements are set for discussion. Yet the progress in US–India trade talks suggests both sides are keen to prevent geopolitical tensions from spilling into their economic partnership.
India is also positioned to gain from the US rollback of reciprocal tariffs on key agricultural products such as tea, coffee and spices. Analysts say the move effectively shields around $1 billion worth of Indian farm exports from additional duties.
Trump carves out tariff exemptions on key food imports in push to cut grocery prices
