Unseasonably heavy rainfall and warm temperatures across Ivory Coast’s main cocoa-growing regions are expected to boost the size and quality of the October-to-March main crop, local farmers have said.
Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is officially in its dry season from mid-November to March, when rains are typically scarce. But last week, some areas received the heaviest rainfall in three years for this period, helping small and medium-sized pods due for harvest in February and March develop fully.
“Weather has been extraordinary this season,” said Salame Kone, a farmer near the western town of Soubre. “We had heavy rains at this time of year, which is unusual. We expect enough cocoa in the coming months.”
Soubre received 36.5 millimetres (1.44 inches) of rain last week about 28.4 mm (1.12 inches) above the five-year average for the period, farmers said. Similar above-average rainfall was reported in the southern towns of Divo and Agboville, and eastern Abengourou, where beans are still being harvested and overall availability remains high.
In central-western and central regions, including Daloa, Bongouanou, and Yamoussoukro, rainfall also exceeded seasonal norms. Farmers there expressed optimism that cocoa trees were well-prepared to withstand the Harmattan, a dry, dusty wind from the Sahara that typically sweeps south between December and March, sharply reducing humidity.
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“Even though the Harmattan is strong this year, the trees should withstand it well,” said Arthur Konan, a farmer near Yamoussoukro, where 12.9 mm (0.51 inches) of rain fell last week 10.1 mm (0.40 inches) above the five-year average.
The weekly average temperatures ranged from 27.1 to 30.2 degrees Celsius (80.8 to 86.4 Fahrenheit), providing favorable conditions for pod development. Farmers said that warm weather combined with sufficient rainfall was particularly important for protecting small pods, which can be damaged or killed by prolonged Harmattan winds, potentially reducing yields.
Cocoa accounts for a large share of Ivory Coast’s export earnings and livelihoods. The country, which produces more than 2 million tonnes annually, faces annual risks from weather fluctuations, pests, and diseases. Adequate rainfall and balanced temperatures at this stage of the main crop are crucial for maintaining both quantity and bean quality.
Agricultural analysts say that early-season rains can reduce the impact of drought conditions during the peak dry months, helping sustain high yields for February and March harvests. “This season looks promising for farmers,” said Emmanuel Bamba, a cocoa agronomist based in Abidjan. “The combination of good rains and warm temperatures helps pods develop and reduces the risk of losses from harsh winds or water stress.”
Farmers are also monitoring rainfall distribution carefully, noting that while early rains are beneficial, excessively heavy or uneven rainfall later in the season can lead to fungal diseases, which could threaten beans’ quality.
Despite these concerns, the outlook for the main crop is positive. Many farmers have reported that trees are healthy, flowers have set, and pods are developing uniformly. This optimism comes as the government and cocoa industry stakeholders work to maintain steady supply to global markets, which rely heavily on Ivory Coast’s production.
If the favorable weather continues, the main crop harvest could benefit from both higher yields and improved bean quality, potentially supporting local incomes and export revenues in the first quarter of 2026.
