Ivory Coast will announce the price it will pay cocoa farmers for the upcoming mid-crop by the end of February, Agriculture Minister Bruno Nabagne Kone said Monday, in an unusually early move as the world’s top producer grapples with a sharp slump in global prices.
The West African nation typically unveils the mid-crop farmgate price in late March or early April. This year’s announcement, expected within days, comes as international cocoa markets reel from falling futures and concerns over oversupply.
“In a few days, before the end of the month, there will be announcements made by the government,” Kone told reporters on the sidelines of the annual Paris International Agricultural Show.
“(The announcements) will be about a number of things, including price,” he added, referring to the mid-crop season that runs from April to September.
Ivory Coast sets a fixed price that exporters must pay farmers, a mechanism aimed at shielding growers from volatile global markets and ensuring a minimum income. The system is closely watched, as cocoa accounts for around 40 percent of the country’s export earnings and supports millions of livelihoods.
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The early timing of the announcement has fuelled speculation that Abidjan may be preparing to cut the farmgate price amid mounting pressure from a downturn in world markets.
Cocoa futures in London have plunged to two-and-a-half-year lows, having dropped roughly 50 percent since the start of the year. Prices had surged to record highs in 2024 amid supply concerns, but have since retreated sharply on expectations of improved harvests and softer demand.
Government sources told AFP last week that authorities are weighing whether to align farmer prices more closely with neighbouring Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.
Earlier this month, Ghana slashed the price it pays its farmers by about a third in response to the global downturn. Analysts say maintaining significantly higher prices in Ivory Coast could encourage cross-border smuggling, distorting supply chains and undermining official export figures.
Both countries coordinate cocoa marketing policies under a joint initiative launched in 2019 to secure better incomes for farmers. The so-called Living Income Differential (LID) added a $400-per-tonne premium to cocoa sales in an effort to tackle poverty among growers.
However, the recent collapse in futures has complicated efforts to sustain elevated farmgate prices without straining public finances. Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator pre-sells a large share of the crop months in advance to secure forward contracts, but lower global benchmarks reduce the room to maintain generous payouts.
Industry observers say any cut to the mid-crop price could prove politically sensitive in rural areas, where cocoa income underpins household spending on food, schooling and healthcare.
“Farmers have enjoyed historically high prices in recent seasons,” one Paris-based commodities analyst said. “But the government must balance farmer welfare with the realities of the international market.”
The mid-crop accounts for a smaller share of annual production compared with the main harvest, which runs from October to March. Still, it remains an important source of income for growers and a barometer of market sentiment.
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Ivory Coast produced more than two million tonnes of cocoa beans last season, cementing its position as the world’s largest supplier. The sector’s performance has broad implications for the global chocolate industry, which has faced rising costs and shifting consumer demand.
Kone did not indicate the level at which the new mid-crop price might be set, but stressed that the government would make its decision in the coming days.
Markets and farmers alike are now awaiting the announcement, which will signal how Abidjan intends to navigate a volatile period for one of its most strategic commodities.
Ivory Coast is the world’s largest cocoa producer, accounting for roughly 40 percent of global supply. The sector is the backbone of its economy, generating a major share of export earnings and providing income to an estimated one million farmers and several million people indirectly.
Cocoa is sold through a state-regulated marketing system overseen by the Coffee and Cocoa Council, which sets a guaranteed farmgate price at the start of each harvest season. The price is based on forward sales of a large portion of the crop, a mechanism designed to protect farmers from extreme volatility in global markets.
The cocoa season is divided into two parts: the main crop, which runs from October to March and accounts for the bulk of production, and the smaller mid-crop from April to September. The government typically announces the main crop price in September and the mid-crop price in late March or early April.
In recent years, Ivory Coast and neighbouring Ghana — the world’s second-largest cocoa producer — have coordinated policy through a joint initiative aimed at improving farmer incomes. In 2019, the two countries introduced a $400-per-tonne Living Income Differential (LID) on cocoa sales to address poverty among growers and strengthen their bargaining power in the global market.
Global cocoa prices surged to record highs in 2024 due to poor harvests linked to adverse weather and crop disease in West Africa. However, prices have since retreated sharply amid expectations of improved supply and weaker demand, putting pressure on producing countries to adjust farmgate prices.
Lower international prices can strain public finances in Ivory Coast, as maintaining high fixed payments to farmers becomes more costly. At the same time, significant price gaps between Ivory Coast and Ghana can fuel cross-border smuggling, complicating efforts to manage supply and revenues.
The timing and level of the mid-crop price announcement are therefore closely watched by farmers, exporters and international traders, as they signal the government’s strategy for balancing rural incomes with market realities.
