Jefferies Financial Group has lowered its 12-month price target for PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) to US$60, down from US$75, while maintaining a Hold rating on the stock, reflecting persisting uncertainty in the broader digital payments and e-commerce landscape. The revised target, reiterated by Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams on December 19, 2025, stands well below the wider market consensus, which sits at roughly US$78.97, and signals a more cautious view on PayPal’s near-term growth prospects.
Jefferies’ adjustment was initially communicated on November 24, 2025, and follows a series of indicators pointing to sustained weakness in key revenue drivers for PayPal. Although the firm acknowledged recent pockets of strength, such as accelerating e-commerce activity in the United Kingdom, it highlighted that this was not enough to offset broader deceleration trends in global online commerce.
A central concern for Jefferies is the contraction in two-year growth stacks, a metric that tracks how recent sales growth compares to prior periods. In PayPal’s case, these stacks have shown signs of slowing more than expected, prompting Jefferies to temper expectations. Additionally, monthly growth in November 2025 lagged typical seasonal patterns that usually benefit payment processors during peak shopping periods, adding further caution to the outlook.
The Jefferies stance aligns with a broader wave of analyst revisions across the financial services and digital payments sector in late 2025. Other major research firms have also trimmed their targets for PayPal:
- Evercore ISI issued a target of US$65.
- Wells Fargo set its price target at US$67.
These adjustments reflect heightened caution among investors and analysts as macroeconomic pressures, consumer spending shifts, and intensifying competition reshape expectations for high-growth fintech firms.
Despite Jefferies’ more conservative valuation, there remains a spectrum of sentiment among Wall Street firms regarding PayPal’s future performance. Some analysts have retained more optimistic views:
- Macquarie Group raised its price target to US$100 and assigned an Outperform rating, citing PayPal’s entrenched market position and opportunities in digital wallet and peer-to-peer payments.
- Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) continues to support a target of US$91, reflecting confidence in PayPal’s long-term revenue diversification.
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. recently lowered its own target to US$70 and downgraded the rating to Neutral, signaling caution similar to Jefferies but still at a less discounted valuation.
Analysts caution that while e-commerce remains essential to PayPal’s volume and transaction growth, evolving consumer behaviour, especially shifts toward alternative payment options and digital wallets, could constrain medium-term growth. Competition from fintech upstarts and platform-native payment solutions further complicates the landscape, particularly in developed markets where digital adoption is already high.
Investors tracking PayPal’s performance are advised to monitor real-time analyst rating changes and detailed forecasts through financial data platforms such as MarketBeat’s PayPal Stock Forecast page or Investing.com’s PayPal Analyst Ratings tool, which aggregate insights from sell-side research and help gauge shifts in sentiment.
Jefferies’ cautious stance underscores a critical juncture for PayPal as it navigates slower e-commerce growth stacks, seasonal headwinds, and broader fintech competition. How the company executes on product innovation, merchant integration, and international expansion will likely play a key role in shaping investor confidence and future analyst revisions.
PayPal declares US$0.14 quarterly dividend as 2024 gains accelerate
