Fuel retailers in Kenya are facing mounting supply shortages, with industry players warning of a potential nationwide crisis if disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict persist.
The head of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya said about 20 percent of fuel stations across the country are already affected, citing constrained supplies and rising global oil prices.
“We have constrained supply,” said Martin Chomba, adding that the situation could deteriorate rapidly.
“In two weeks it will be a total crisis with no fuel in most outlets if the tension in the Middle East continues,” he warned.
The shortages come as the conflict involving Iran disrupts global energy flows, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for oil and liquefied natural gas.
More Read
African economies, many of which rely heavily on imported fuel, are particularly exposed to such supply shocks.
Kenya sources all of its petroleum products from the Middle East through government-to-government supply arrangements with Gulf producers and refiners, making it vulnerable to disruptions in the region.
Industry players say the situation has been compounded by domestic pricing policies.
Earlier this month, the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority held pump prices steady for 30 days despite a surge in global crude oil prices, squeezing margins for retailers and discouraging supply flows.
Analysts say the mismatch between international prices and domestic retail prices can create distortions in the market, leading to reduced availability of fuel.
Retailers are now warning of possible hoarding, as dealers anticipate price increases in the next review cycle.
“Real shock is on the way,” Chomba said, suggesting that some market participants may begin stockpiling fuel in expectation of higher prices.
Such behaviour could further strain supply, particularly if panic buying by consumers intensifies.
However, the regulator has sought to reassure the public.
Daniel Kiptoo Bargoria said the country currently has sufficient fuel stocks, adding that authorities are monitoring the situation and would provide further updates.
Government officials have also pointed to speculative behaviour as a contributing factor.
A ruling party lawmaker, Nelson Koech, said increased demand driven by panic buying and hoarding by marketers has added pressure to supply chains in recent weeks.
The situation highlights the broader vulnerability of import-dependent economies to global energy shocks, particularly during periods of geopolitical instability.
Rising oil prices not only affect supply availability but also have knock-on effects on inflation, transport costs and overall economic activity.
Industry representatives have called on authorities to review existing supply arrangements and consider allowing fuel marketers to source products from private suppliers as a contingency measure.
Such a move, they argue, could help diversify supply channels and reduce reliance on a single procurement system.
For now, the outlook remains uncertain.
If tensions in the Middle East persist and global supply disruptions continue, Kenya could face deeper shortages and upward pressure on fuel prices in the coming weeks.
Analysts say the coming days will be critical in determining whether the situation stabilises or escalates into a broader energy supply crisis.
