Kenya has put the brakes on a proposed trade agreement with China, a move widely seen as a calculated attempt to protect its economic ties with the United States at a moment of growing trade vulnerability.
According to reports, Nairobi has delayed formalising the deal with Beijing following pressure from Washington, as the government prioritises efforts to restore its eligibility under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). The proposed China pact still requires approval from Kenya’s cabinet, parliament and President William Ruto, leaving it firmly on hold for now.
AGOA, which for more than two decades allowed qualifying African exports to enter the US market duty-free, expired on September 30, 2025. Its lapse has already begun to bite. Kenyan apparel exports to the United States, valued at over $600 million annually, are now facing tariffs of up to 28%, significantly eroding competitiveness. Industry groups warn that the fallout could be severe. The Kenya Association of Manufacturers has cautioned that more than 66,000 jobs, largely in textiles and agriculture, are at risk if access to the US market is not urgently restored.
Against this backdrop, Kenyan policymakers had viewed closer trade ties with China as a potential buffer. Under the reported terms of the stalled agreement, China would eliminate tariffs on key Kenyan exports such as tea, coffee and avocados, offering farmers and exporters an alternative market as US costs rise. China is already one of Kenya’s largest trading partners and a major investor in infrastructure, including rail and port projects, making the deal economically attractive.
However, analysts say the delay highlights Kenya’s increasingly delicate balancing act between the world’s two largest economies. The United States remains a critical destination for Kenyan manufactured goods, particularly textiles produced under export-processing zones, while China dominates as a source of financing, imports and long-term infrastructure investment. With AGOA’s future still uncertain in the US Congress, Nairobi appears unwilling to risk antagonising Washington at a sensitive moment.
US officials have not publicly commented on the reported pressure, but trade experts note that Washington has been signalling more assertively to African partners about strategic alignment, especially as competition with China deepens. Kenya’s decision underscores how African economies are being forced to navigate great-power rivalries while safeguarding jobs and export revenues at home.
For now, the China trade deal remains in limbo, and Kenya’s focus is firmly on regaining preferential access to the US market. Whether Nairobi can eventually revive the Beijing agreement without jeopardising relations with Washington will depend largely on how, and when, the AGOA question is resolved.
