Liberia is positioning for a sharp rise in iron ore production, with output projected to reach between twenty-five million and thirty million tons as early as this year, up from about ten million tons in twenty twenty-five.
The forecast was announced by Mines and Energy Minister Matenokay Tingban during the Mining Indaba, where he outlined expectations for a significant expansion in the country’s mining sector. The anticipated growth is driven primarily by the ramp-up of operations by ArcelorMittal, alongside the entry of new mining operators.
ArcelorMittal plans to increase exports to around twenty million tons starting in twenty twenty-six, compared with a historical average of about five million tons per year. Additional production is expected from companies including Cavalla Resources, Westcrest and Zodiac, as well as the restart of Bao Chico’s operations.
The expansion comes amid firmer global iron ore prices in twenty twenty-five, supported largely by demand from China, the world’s largest consumer of the steelmaking raw material. For Liberia, where iron ore remains central to export earnings and government revenue, the timing of the scale-up is seen as particularly significant.
At the heart of the production surge is ArcelorMittal’s one point eight billion dollar expansion programme. The project is centred on the construction of a new concentrator at Tokadeh in Nimba County, designed to increase processing capacity and improve the quality of ore produced. By enhancing beneficiation, the company aims to raise output volumes while meeting international grade standards.
The industrial programme also includes substantial infrastructure upgrades. The rail corridor linking Tokadeh to the port of Buchanan is being modernised to handle higher volumes, while port facilities are being expanded through the construction of an additional quay. Two power plants are also being commissioned to secure reliable energy supply for the mining operations.
To support these investments, Liberia’s Parliament recently ratified an amendment to the mining development agreement between the government and ArcelorMittal. The revised agreement extends the partnership until two thousand and fifty, with an option for a further twenty-five-year renewal. It also provides for a two hundred million dollar payment to the Liberian government in exchange for extended mining rights and reserved rail capacity financed by the company.
The long-term framework is viewed as part of a broader strategy to stabilise and grow the economy after decades of disruption. Civil conflict between nineteen eighty-nine and two thousand and three severely damaged infrastructure and curtailed industrial output. Subsequent shocks, including the Ebola crisis and the Covid-nineteen pandemic, further constrained public finances and investment capacity.
Against that backdrop, securing long-term mining agreements and anchoring large-scale capital investment is seen as critical to rebuilding fiscal space and strengthening macroeconomic resilience. According to data from the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, the extractive sector accounted for more than twenty-one percent of Liberia’s domestic revenue in twenty twenty-three. Iron ore dominates those flows, with ArcelorMittal Liberia responsible for roughly ninety percent of the country’s iron ore exports.
The projected production surge is therefore closely tied to public revenue prospects. Higher output and export volumes could bolster foreign exchange earnings, improve the balance of payments and provide additional fiscal resources for infrastructure and social spending.
However, analysts note that the sustainability of gains will depend on global price trends, operational stability and effective governance of mining revenues. Still, the scale of planned expansion marks one of the most significant industrial developments in Liberia in recent years, reinforcing iron ore’s central role in the country’s economic trajectory.
