Morocco’s economy enters the first quarter of 2026 with cautious optimism, as industrial and construction sectors signal potential growth despite challenges in energy and extractive industries, according to a quarterly survey by the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
The HCP report reflects a mixed economic landscape. In the manufacturing sector, companies anticipate an overall increase in production, largely driven by activity in the food, chemical, and metal product industries. These sectors are benefiting from sustained domestic demand and investment in modern production techniques.
However, output in the automotive sector and the production of non-metallic mineral products is projected to decline, highlighting ongoing difficulties in specialized manufacturing segments. The report notes that industrialists generally expect a slight increase in employment, reflecting modest improvements in workforce levels, even in areas experiencing lower production.
In the extractive sector, businesses expect a decrease in production, primarily due to reduced phosphate output, Morocco’s key export mineral. Despite this decline, firms anticipate an increase in employment, suggesting continued investment in human capital and operational resilience amid lower output. Analysts say this trend could indicate a strategic focus on maintaining skilled personnel for future expansion, even as commodity-specific challenges persist.
The energy sector is expected to experience declines in both production and employment, a result of lower activity in electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning distribution. HCP data shows that this contraction reflects both domestic operational constraints and broader global energy market volatility. In contrast, the environmental industry, including water capture, treatment, and distribution, is projected to remain stable in production and employment, reflecting steady demand for essential services that underpin both urban and rural communities.
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Construction, however, stands out as a potential engine for economic recovery. The HCP survey finds that overall construction activity is projected to rise, driven by growth in building construction and civil engineering. While specialized construction works may see a minor decline, the sector is expected to add jobs, signaling increased labor demand. Observers note that construction’s expansion not only supports infrastructure development but also provides indirect employment and business opportunities across materials, logistics, and professional services.
Economic analysts suggest that Morocco’s Q1 outlook reflects a broader pattern of selective recovery, where growth is concentrated in sectors linked to domestic consumption and public investment, while energy and extractive industries face structural and market-related headwinds. The survey underscores the importance of manufacturing and construction as stabilizing forces in Morocco’s economic trajectory, with potential spillovers into employment and household income.
HCP officials caution that while optimism is warranted, policymakers must remain attentive to sector-specific vulnerabilities. Energy production constraints, declining phosphate output, and uneven performance in specialized manufacturing sectors could temper overall GDP gains if not addressed. Strengthening investment incentives, diversifying industrial output, and supporting skills development in lagging sectors are cited as critical measures to sustain recovery.
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Overall, Morocco’s first-quarter economic outlook paints a picture of cautious optimism, with growth concentrated in manufacturing and construction. While some sectors face declines, the projected increase in employment and targeted production gains suggest that strategic interventions could stabilize the economy and maintain momentum into the second quarter. Observers say the findings provide an early signal that Morocco’s economy is navigating a transitional phase, balancing sector-specific risks with opportunities for expansion and job creation.
