Morocco’s grain output is set to double this season, buoyed by heavy winter rains that boosted soil moisture and dam reserves, according to traders and millers, despite localized flooding in the northwest.
Moulay Abdelkader Alaoui, head of the National Federation of Millers, told Reuters that the sector plans to add locally produced wheat to strategic reserves this year, ensuring sufficient domestic supply.
Omar Yaacoubi, head of the National Federation of Cereals Traders, said total grain production is forecast at 8 to 9 million tonnes, including roughly 5 million tonnes of soft wheat. Last season, the country harvested 4.4 million tonnes, highlighting the scale of the expected recovery.
Recent floods damaged around 110,000 hectares in Morocco’s fertile northwest, but Yaacoubi said the impact is “limited” and will be offset by higher yields elsewhere.
Moroccan authorities typically reinstate customs duties during bumper seasons to prioritize local production, but this year importers, millers, and traders have requested that wheat import subsidies be extended to June 1, rather than ending on May 1, to offset weather-related costs and delays in shipping.
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The strong harvest comes as Morocco continues to strengthen its food security policies, balancing local production incentives with strategic imports to stabilize prices and ensure consistent supplies for consumers.
Morocco’s cereals sector is a key component of the country’s agricultural economy, supporting food security, employment, and rural livelihoods. Wheat, both soft and durum, forms the backbone of the national grain supply, and fluctuations in production have historically influenced domestic prices and government policy.
Rainfall patterns play a critical role in Moroccan agriculture. The country relies heavily on rain-fed cereal cultivation, particularly in the fertile plains of the northwest, which produce a large share of national wheat and barley. In dry seasons, low rainfall can sharply reduce output, forcing higher imports to meet domestic demand. Conversely, abundant winter rains, such as those recorded this season, replenish soil moisture, fill dams, and support higher yields, as seen in the projected doubling of Morocco’s cereals harvest from 4.4 million tonnes last season to 8–9 million tonnes.
The Moroccan government has long used a mix of policy tools to stabilize the cereals market. During years of strong production, authorities may reinstate customs duties on grain imports to encourage use of the local harvest and protect farmers’ incomes. Conversely, in weaker harvest years, the government may rely on import subsidies to keep bread prices affordable and avoid inflationary pressures on staple foods. This year, traders and millers have requested an extension of wheat import subsidies to June 1 to offset shipping delays caused by heavy rains.
Flooding is a recurrent challenge in the northwest, Morocco’s main cereal-producing region. While localized flood damage like the recent 110,000 hectares affected is a risk, national output can still benefit from favorable conditions elsewhere, underscoring the resilience of diversified production zones.
The cereals sector is supported by national federations, such as the National Federation of Millers and the National Federation of Cereals Traders, which coordinate strategic reserves, monitor production trends, and liaise with government authorities on policy measures. Their role is increasingly important as Morocco seeks to balance domestic production, market stability, and food security amid climate variability and global commodity price volatility.
Overall, Morocco’s agricultural outlook remains closely tied to rainfall patterns, dam levels, and policy interventions, with the government and private sector working together to ensure that bumper harvests translate into both domestic supply security and price stability for consumers.
