Morocco’s central bank on Tuesday decided to maintain its key interest rate at 2.25 percent, citing strong economic momentum, moderate inflation expectations, and heightened uncertainty in global markets. The decision by Bank Al-Maghrib comes as the kingdom projects overall economic growth of 5.6 percent in 2026, up from an estimated 4.8 percent in 2025.
In its statement, the bank highlighted that recent geopolitical tensions including the war in the Middle East, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, and uncertainties in U.S. trade policy are testing global economic resilience. These developments have already influenced financial markets and commodity prices, particularly energy, though their ultimate impact will depend on the conflict’s duration and intensity.
Agricultural output is expected to provide a significant boost to the Moroccan economy this year. Favorable weather conditions and a sown area of 3.9 million hectares are projected to yield 82 million quintals of the country’s three main cereals. Bank Al-Maghrib estimates that agricultural value added will rebound by 14.4 percent in 2026, after a slowdown in 2025, before declining by 5.3 percent in 2027 assuming average production returns.
Non-agricultural sectors are also expected to remain robust, supported by strong investment in economic and social infrastructure. Growth in these activities is forecast at around 4.5 percent, sustaining Morocco’s overall economic expansion.
Inflation in Morocco remains low and stable. Improved food supply and lower fuel prices have contributed to keeping inflation modest, at an estimated 0.8 percent year-on-year in 2026. While baseline projections suggest oil prices may rise, inflation is expected to increase only gradually, reaching 1.4 percent in 2027.
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“The Board considered the medium-term macroeconomic projections, as well as national and international developments, before confirming the key interest rate,” Bank Al-Maghrib said, noting that the central bank will continue monitoring global and domestic conditions closely.
Morocco’s decision to hold the rate steady reflects confidence in the economy’s resilience, balancing support for growth with the need to keep inflation under control. Economic analysts noted that the combination of strong agricultural performance and sustained infrastructure investment is likely to underpin private consumption and domestic investment in the near term.
Looking ahead, Morocco’s growth trajectory is projected to moderate to 3.5 percent by 2027, reflecting expected normalization in agricultural output and slower momentum in non-agricultural sectors. Nonetheless, the economy is considered well positioned to weather global shocks due to its diversified production base and robust fiscal and monetary policies.
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Bank Al-Maghrib’s policy stance underscores the importance of maintaining financial stability while promoting sustainable growth. By keeping borrowing costs low, authorities aim to support investment, employment, and consumption without triggering excessive inflation, ensuring Morocco’s economy continues on a path of steady expansion.
