Namibia’s national debt set to cross US$10.8bn amid rising deficits

Namibia’s Ministry of Finance is preparing to adjust personal income tax brackets in April, as the country grapples with a rapidly rising national debt projected to surpass US$10.8 billion in the coming financial year.

Finance Minister Ericah Shafudah announced the planned amendments during the tabling of the national budget last week, noting that the income tax amendment bill is currently under legal review and will be presented in the second quarter of 2026. The minister said the adjustments aim to reduce fiscal drag and restore fairness to the tax system.

“Updating personal income tax rates and thresholds ensures continued progression and adequacy of revenue over two financial years,” Shafudah said. “This is part of our ongoing commitment to a tax regime that balances equity with fiscal sustainability.”

The proposed changes will build on the first bracket adjustments implemented in the 2023/24 financial year, when individuals earning less than US$5,400 annually were exempted from income tax for the first time in a decade. Relief was also extended to other income groups, alleviating some of the pressure caused by inflation-driven bracket creep.

The tax reform comes as Namibia’s national debt portfolio is expanding sharply, reflecting persistent budget deficits and increased public spending. According to the government’s fiscal book, total government debt is expected to rise from US$9.3 billion in 2025/26 to $10.5 billion in 2026/27, representing 67.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Debt is projected to stabilize gradually over the medium term, falling to 65.9 percent of GDP by 2028/29.

Shafudah said the composition of the debt portfolio is predominantly domestic (88 percent), with foreign borrowing limited to 12 percent, mainly in South African rand, Chinese renminbi, US dollars, and euros. The largest component of domestic debt consists of fixed-rate bonds (US$4.9 billion), followed by treasury bills ($2.5 billion) and inflation-linked bonds (US$540 million).

“Interest payments are projected to consume 16.4 percent of total revenue, or US$770 million, highlighting the importance of managing our debt responsibly,” the minister said. She noted that domestic financing supports capital market development while reducing vulnerability to exchange rate fluctuations.

Economists say the twin pressures of rising debt and the need to update tax brackets underscore the balancing act facing Namibia’s policymakers. Adjusting income tax thresholds helps maintain household purchasing power, particularly for low- and middle-income earners, while limiting fiscal drag. At the same time, careful management of the debt portfolio is crucial to ensure long-term economic stability and avoid crowding out investment.

“The government is taking a measured approach by prioritising domestic debt instruments and controlling foreign exposure,” said Shaimaa Wagih, a regional fiscal analyst. “These measures, alongside progressive taxation, are designed to secure revenue, stabilize the macroeconomy, and support sustainable growth.”

Shafudah emphasized that the government’s medium-term expenditure framework is designed to balance investment in infrastructure, social services, and economic development with fiscal prudence. The policy mix seeks to safeguard investor confidence while providing relief to taxpayers and ensuring debt remains serviceable.

Namibia’s upcoming income tax adjustments and the ongoing management of a growing debt portfolio reflect broader trends in Southern Africa, where governments are navigating the twin challenges of rising public spending and revenue adequacy amid global economic uncertainty.

As the country prepares to implement these measures, policymakers aim to maintain a stable fiscal path, support domestic economic activity, and ensure that the benefits of growth are equitably shared among citizens.

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