Nigeria could increase crude oil production by about 100,000 barrels per day in the coming months, the head of the state energy firm said, as Africa’s largest oil producer seeks to capitalise on shifting global supply dynamics.
Bashir Bayo Ojulari, group chief executive of Nigerian National Petroleum Company, said the country is working to ramp up capacity, even as it acknowledges limitations compared to leading producers.
“We are building that capacity,” he said on the sidelines of the CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston. “But we are not like Saudi Arabia. Still, we can contribute.”
Nigeria produced an average of between 1.6 million and 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and is targeting output of around 1.8 million bpd this year, Ojulari said.
The planned increase comes at a time of heightened uncertainty in global energy markets, with supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East including conflict involving Iran prompting concerns about potential crude shortages.
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Analysts say any additional barrels from Nigeria could help ease pressure on global supply, though the scale of the increase remains modest compared to major producers within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Ojulari stressed that Nigeria’s focus is not only on raising output but also on improving operational efficiency across its oil and gas portfolio.
He said the company had completed a comprehensive review of its assets and operations in 2025 and is now moving to implement reforms aimed at boosting performance.
“One of our key priorities is execution — ensuring projects are delivered on time and within budget,” he said, acknowledging that delays have historically undermined production targets.
Nigeria’s oil sector has long faced structural challenges, including pipeline vandalism, crude theft, underinvestment and regulatory uncertainty, all of which have constrained output despite the country’s significant reserves.
Recent reforms, including the commercialisation of NNPC and efforts to attract new investment, are aimed at reversing the trend and stabilising production.
Industry observers note that improved security in oil-producing regions and better infrastructure management will be critical if Nigeria is to achieve its output goals.
The government has also been working to enhance transparency and efficiency within the sector, in line with broader economic reform efforts.
While Nigeria’s potential production increase is relatively small in global terms, it comes at a time when markets are highly sensitive to supply disruptions.
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Top producers such as Saudi Arabia retain significant spare capacity, but smaller contributions from countries like Nigeria can still play a role in balancing markets during periods of volatility.
Ojulari said Nigeria remains committed to strengthening its position in the global energy landscape, while ensuring that reforms translate into tangible gains in output and revenue.
“We can contribute,” he reiterated, signalling the country’s intention to remain an active player in efforts to stabilise oil markets amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Analysts caution, however, that sustaining higher production levels will depend on continued investment, policy consistency and the ability to address long-standing operational bottlenecks.
For now, Nigeria’s planned output increase represents a step towards rebuilding capacity and restoring confidence in its oil sector, even as global market conditions remain uncertain.
