Nigeria imported crude oil worth US$3.74 billion in 2025 for the operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest Balance of Payments report, highlighting a shift in the country’s oil trade structure despite its status as Africa’s largest crude producer.
The report indicated that crude imports by Dangote Refinery contributed significantly to Nigeria’s current account, which posted a surplus of US$14.04 billion in 2025, down from $19.03 billion in 2024 but up from $6.42 billion in 2023. The decline from 2024 was largely attributed to structural changes in oil trade flows, including increased domestic crude processing. Exports of crude fell from $36.85 billion in 2024 to $31.54 billion in 2025, a 14.41 percent drop, reshaping the external balance.
The refinery’s operations, however, strengthened Nigeria’s goods account, which remained in surplus at $14.51 billion in 2025, up from US$13.17 billion in 2024. This improvement was supported by the significant export of refined petroleum products valued at $5.85 billion and higher gas exports. Additionally, domestic availability of refined products from the Dangote Refinery reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuels, leading to a 28.88 percent decline in refined petroleum product imports, which fell from $14.06 billion in 2024 to $10 billion in 2025.
Despite the reduced dependence on fuel imports, total non-oil imports increased 13.6 percent to $29.24 billion, reflecting ongoing demand for foreign goods. The report also highlighted rising external payments: net outflows for services increased from $13.36 billion in 2024 to $14.58 billion in 2025, driven by transport, travel, insurance, and other costs, while net outflows in the primary income account surged by 60.88 percent to $9.09 billion due to higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.
Secondary income inflows slightly decreased from $24.88 billion in 2024 to $23.20 billion in 2025, though remittances remained a crucial inflow component. On the financial account, Nigeria shifted to a net borrowing position of $1.69 billion in 2025, compared to a net lending position of $9.65 billion in 2024. Portfolio investment inflows fell sharply by 48.3 percent to $8.04 billion, while foreign direct investment increased to $4.01 billion from $1.61 billion, reflecting a gradual pivot toward longer-term capital.
Energy analysts have noted that despite the naira-for-crude policy introduced in 2024 to prioritize local supply, Dangote Refinery and other modular refineries still source most of their feedstock from abroad. Jeremiah Olatide said, “About 65–70 percent of Dangote’s feedstock continues to be imported, while around 95 percent of modular refineries also rely on foreign crude. The policy has therefore not significantly reduced fuel prices.”
The report also showed that the refinery’s operations enhanced product availability, stabilizing domestic supply, but international pricing benchmarks continue to influence local fuel costs. The overall balance of payments remained positive at $4.23 billion in 2025, lower than $6.83 billion in 2024, while external reserves rose 13.83 percent to $45.75 billion by the end of December 2025, providing improved buffers against external shocks.
Nigeria’s crude import paradox underscores the challenges of building domestic refining capacity while managing global pricing dynamics and balancing supply with affordability for consumers. The Dangote Refinery remains central to these efforts, supplying refined petroleum products and contributing to the country’s evolving energy trade structure.
