Nigeria’s merchandise trade rose to an estimated US$23.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026, as strong crude oil earnings and a sharp fall in imports pushed Africa’s largest economy into a wider trade surplus, official data showed Monday.
Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate that total merchandise trade stood at ₦34.8 trillion (US$23.2 billion) in the January–March period, reflecting stronger export performance and reduced import demand. The estimates are based on an exchange rate of approximately ₦1,500 to the dollar.
Exports during the quarter reached ₦21.2 trillion (US$14.1 billion), up 2.8 percent compared with the same period in 2025, and significantly higher than the previous quarter, suggesting sustained external demand for Nigerian commodities, particularly hydrocarbons.
Imports, by contrast, dropped sharply to ₦13.6 trillion (US$9.1 billion), representing an 18.2 percent decline year-on-year and a 21.1 percent drop from the last quarter of 2025. The contraction in imports was a key driver of the country’s improved trade balance.
As a result, Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of ₦7.5 trillion (US$5.0 billion), underscoring the economy’s continued reliance on oil exports and the impact of weaker import activity on external accounts.
Crude oil remained the backbone of export earnings, generating ₦11.2 trillion (US$7.5 billion), more than half of total export revenues. Other petroleum-related products contributed ₦6.8 trillion (US$4.5 billion), bringing the combined hydrocarbon share of exports to more than 80 percent.
Non-oil exports, which include agricultural goods and raw materials, were valued at ₦3.2 trillion (US$2.1 billion), highlighting ongoing but limited progress in diversification efforts.
Natural gas emerged as a significant export product, earning ₦2 trillion (US$1.33 billion) during the quarter. Urea fertiliser exports followed at ₦1.4 trillion ($933 million), while other petroleum gases and jet fuel each contributed about ₦1.3 trillion (US$867 million).
On the import side, manufactured goods dominated, accounting for ₦8.5 trillion (US$5.67 billion) or about 62.3 percent of total imports. The category reflects Nigeria’s continued dependence on foreign industrial products, machinery and consumer goods.
Crude oil imports were valued at ₦1.9 trillion (US$1.27 billion), despite Nigeria being a major producer, highlighting the structural mismatch in domestic refining capacity. Raw material imports stood at ₦1.6 trillion (US$1.07 billion), while agricultural imports reached ₦827.7 billion (US$552 million).
Other imports included petroleum products worth ₦748.1 billion (US$499 million) and solid minerals valued at ₦69.8 billion (US$46.5 million).
Among key imported items, petroleum oils topped the list at ₦1.9 trillion (US$1.27 billion), followed by gas oil at ₦364.4 billion (US$243 million). Durum wheat imports were valued at ₦340.1 billion (US$227 million), while machinery for data transmission and used vehicles stood at ₦299.6 billion (US$200 million) and ₦284.1 billion (US$189 million) respectively.
China remained Nigeria’s largest import partner, supplying goods worth ₦5.1 trillion (US$3.4 billion), followed by the United States at ₦2.8 trillion (US$1.87 billion) and India at ₦992.9 billion (US$662 million). Germany and the United Arab Emirates also featured among key suppliers.
On the export side, India was Nigeria’s largest destination, receiving goods worth ₦2.8 trillion (US$1.87 billion), largely crude oil and related products. France and the Netherlands each imported Nigerian goods valued at ₦2 trillion (US$1.33 billion), while Spain accounted for ₦1.6 trillion ($1.07 billion) and the United States ₦1.2 trillion (US$800 million).
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Economists say the stronger trade surplus provides short-term relief for Nigeria’s external position and may help support foreign exchange stability amid persistent currency pressures. However, they warn that the country’s external sector remains highly exposed to fluctuations in global oil prices.
Analysts also note that while import compression has improved headline trade figures, it may reflect underlying weaknesses in domestic demand and industrial capacity.
The latest data underscores longstanding concerns about Nigeria’s heavy dependence on hydrocarbons for export earnings, with crude oil and gas continuing to dominate external revenues despite repeated policy efforts to diversify the economy.
Without significant expansion in manufacturing exports and non-oil sectors, economists caution that Nigeria’s trade performance will remain vulnerable to global commodity cycles and external shocks.
