Nigeria is set to revise the way it reports inflation data following expectations of an artificial spike in its December 2025 figures, a move that could shape market sentiment and monetary policy discussions in the months ahead.
The anticipated spike is linked not to a sudden deterioration in economic fundamentals but to technical and base effects associated with changes in data compilation and seasonal price movements. Authorities say the adjustment is necessary to ensure inflation readings more accurately reflect underlying price pressures in the economy.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which compiles Nigeria’s inflation data, has indicated that the December figure may appear unusually high due to comparison effects and administrative adjustments, rather than fresh inflationary shocks. As a result, reporting revisions are being considered to improve clarity for policymakers, investors and the general public.
Inflation has remained one of Nigeria’s most pressing economic challenges, driven over the past year by currency weakness, fuel price reforms, higher transport costs and food supply constraints. These pressures have kept headline inflation elevated, forcing households to grapple with rising living costs and businesses to adjust pricing strategies.
The expected revision is particularly significant for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which closely tracks inflation trends when setting interest rates. Analysts say an unadjusted spike could distort market expectations and complicate policy decisions if it is misread as a surge in demand-driven inflation rather than a statistical anomaly.
Economists argue that clearer communication around the December data will be crucial to maintaining credibility and avoiding unnecessary volatility in financial markets. Investors are watching closely, as inflation readings influence bond yields, foreign exchange dynamics and broader confidence in Nigeria’s economic management.
With monetary policy meetings approaching, the revised reporting framework is expected to provide a more accurate basis for decision-making, helping authorities balance inflation control with the need to support economic growth.
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