Nigeria’s electricity grid is operating under mounting strain after gas-fired power plants received less than half of the fuel required for generation, deepening power shortages across Africa’s most populous nation, the country’s grid operator said.
Gas supply to thermal power stations dropped to about 43 percent of required volumes, constraining national electricity output and forcing authorities to ration supply to prevent system collapse, according to the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO).
Thermal plants, which account for the bulk of Nigeria’s electricity generation, require around 1,630 million standard cubic feet of gas per day. However, actual deliveries stood at approximately 692 million standard cubic feet per day as of February 23, the operator said in a statement.
“The shortfall has constrained national output and reduced the amount of power allocated to distribution companies,” NISO said.
As a result, national generation has declined to roughly 4,300 megawatts, far below estimated demand in a country of more than 200 million people, worsening chronic electricity shortages that have long hampered economic growth and industrial productivity.
To maintain grid stability, operators have implemented load shedding deliberate power cuts designed to balance limited generation with demand while distributing available electricity according to regulated allocation formulas among power distribution companies.
Industry officials attribute the worsening gas shortages largely to mounting debt within Nigeria’s electricity sector, driven by years of government subsidies and unpaid invoices owed to power producers.
Sector liabilities have now climbed to about 6 trillion naira, equivalent to around US$4.4 billion, according to operators, discouraging investment and limiting gas suppliers’ willingness to sustain deliveries to generation companies.
Power producers say persistent payment delays have undermined confidence across the value chain, leaving gas suppliers reluctant to provide fuel without guaranteed settlement mechanisms.
Nigeria’s government last year approved a phased refinancing plan targeting about 4 trillion naira in legacy electricity sector debt accumulated between 2015 and 2023. The liabilities are owed primarily to 27 generation companies for unpaid power supplied to the national grid.
In January, authorities issued the first tranche of a 501 billion naira bond intended to restore liquidity and stabilise the struggling sector. However, industry operators argue that the intervention remains insufficient as total obligations continue to rise.
The declining gas supply has also complicated ongoing electricity tariff reforms aimed at improving cost recovery within the sector.
Under recent policy changes, roughly 15 percent of consumers classified as higher-income users began paying increased tariffs tied to consumption levels and service expectations. Yet even these customers are now experiencing unreliable supply, raising concerns about the sustainability of reforms designed to attract private investment.
Analysts warn that worsening grid instability could push more households and businesses toward self-generation through diesel and petrol-powered generators, increasing operating costs and environmental pollution.
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Nigeria has one of the lowest per-capita electricity consumption rates globally despite being Africa’s largest economy and a major natural gas producer. Persistent infrastructure constraints, transmission bottlenecks and financial weaknesses have prevented the country from translating its gas resources into reliable power supply.
Energy experts say resolving the sector’s liquidity crisis remains critical to restoring gas flows and improving generation capacity.
Without sustained financial reforms and improved payment discipline, they warn that electricity shortages are likely to persist, weighing on economic activity and investor confidence.
The latest decline in grid capacity underscores the fragile state of Nigeria’s power sector, where fuel shortages, debt accumulation and structural inefficiencies continue to limit reliable electricity delivery nationwide.
