Nigeria’s petrol consumption climbed to 52.9 million litres per day in November, outpacing the 50-million-litre benchmark and reflecting intensified year-end demand pressures. The latest fact sheet from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows that despite increased imports by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, all three state refineries, Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna, remained fully inactive.
The regulator said the supply jump was driven by unusually low volumes in September and October, stock rebuilding efforts ahead of the festive season, extra imports from NNPC acting as supplier of last resort, and the rollover of 12 delayed cargoes from October. While Nigeria continues to pursue reduced dependence on foreign petrol, domestic refining remains far from meeting national demand.
The government had projected 35 million litres of petrol per day for November, but actual domestic evacuation from refineries averaged only 23.52 million litres per day. Diesel evacuation stood at 5.596 million litres per day. Port Harcourt recorded “no production activities”, only clearing leftover diesel from before its May shutdown at 0.349 million litres per day. Warri and Kaduna remained on complete shutdown, underscoring the stagnation of state-owned facilities.
Modular refineries remained the only bright spot in local refining, operating between 62.3% and 91.4% utilisation. Their combined diesel output, roughly 0.489 million litres per day, is still modest compared to national demand but reflects incremental growth. The NMDPRA issued one new establishment licence and one construction licence in November, raising total licensed refinery projects to 48, including six already operational. Waltersmith’s 5,000-barrel-per-day second processing train is undergoing commissioning.
Fuel prices have remained elevated since the removal of subsidies on 29 May 2025. Using the early-December exchange rate of approximately ₦1,440 to $1, Nigerian pump prices translated to $0.63–$0.68 per litre. Lagos recorded ₦910 per litre (≈$0.63), Kano ₦975 (≈$0.68), and Maiduguri ₦982.5 (≈$0.68). Abuja, Ibadan and Calabar all traded within the ₦927–₦972 band, equivalent to about $0.64–$0.67. LPG retailed at ₦950–₦1,500 per kilogram, translating to $0.66–$1.04.
The fact sheet also underscores Nigeria’s expanding reliance on natural gas to stabilise electricity, support industries and sustain export earnings. Daily gas supply in November hit 4.684 billion standard cubic feet. NLNG Trains 1–6 received 2.600 Bscf/day at 73.7% utilisation, while 2.084 Bscf/day was directed to the domestic market. Gas-to-power plants accounted for 0.645 Bscf/day, commercial users 0.420 Bscf/day and gas-based industries 0.581 Bscf/day. LNG exports averaged 101,555 cubic metres daily, with an additional 0.121 Bscf/day transported through the West African Gas Pipeline.
Major gas processing hubs operated at high capacity, including the Soku Gas Plant at 96.84% utilisation and Gbaran-Ubie at 71.21%. The Escravos gas plant operated around 62%, while MPNU’s BRT facility supplied 0.690 Bscf/day.
In its concluding note, the NMDPRA pitched Nigeria as a viable investment destination, arguing that verifiable data demonstrates an ongoing shift towards reduced fuel imports, improved domestic production, enhanced safety systems and job creation. The Authority urged global investors to “bet confidently on Nigeria” as it implements structural reforms.
Nigeria’s November snapshot highlights an energy system still heavily dependent on petrol imports but increasingly anchored by gas. Whether new licences, refinery expansions and modular capacity can translate into real output will determine whether Nigeria breaks its long-standing cycle of import dependence or faces another year of supply volatility.
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