Nigeria’s poverty rate is projected to surge to 62 percent by 2026, leaving roughly 141 million people living below the poverty line, according to a report by PwC.
The findings, contained in PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026, titled “Turning macroeconomic stability into sustainable growth,” highlight the persistent challenges faced by Nigerian households despite recent policy measures aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability.
The report notes that weak real income growth, coupled with high living costs, is likely to push millions more Nigerians into poverty over the next two years. Even modest gains in earnings are expected to be outpaced by inflation, which continues to erode purchasing power, PwC said.
“Poverty is projected to rise to 62 percent (141 million people) by 2026, reflecting weak real income growth and lingering inflation effects,” the report stated, adding that underlying structural costs in the economy will limit meaningful affordability gains for households.
Food prices remain a particular concern. For low-income Nigerians, food accounts for up to 70 percent of total household consumption, making them especially vulnerable to price shocks. PwC warned that even if headline inflation moderates slightly, elevated energy costs, logistics expenses, and exchange rate pass-through effects will keep the prices of food and essential goods high.
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The projected increase in poverty poses significant risks for Nigeria’s economic stability and growth prospects. Analysts say a growing share of the population struggling to meet basic needs could weaken domestic consumption, reduce productivity growth, and place additional pressure on public finances.
The report’s projections align with the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update, which notes that the absolute number of people living in poverty has climbed sharply from about 81 million in 2019 to roughly 139 million in 2025. Earlier estimates indicated about 115 million Nigerians in poverty in 2023, rising to 129 million in 2024, meaning some 14 million people fell into poverty in just one year.
Both PwC and the World Bank stress that targeted policy interventions are critical to reversing the trend. Measures such as job creation, improvements in productivity, and effective social protection programmes are seen as necessary to curb rising poverty levels and protect vulnerable households.
The report warns that without such interventions, growing poverty could further undermine domestic consumption, which accounts for the majority of economic activity, and limit the government’s ability to mobilise resources for development priorities.
PwC also highlights the structural nature of Nigeria’s economic challenges. While some macroeconomic indicators, including inflation and interest rates, are expected to stabilise gradually, the benefits are unlikely to reach poorer households in the near term.
The report underscores the need for policies that combine short-term relief for vulnerable populations with long-term measures to increase incomes, improve access to basic services, and stimulate productive employment.
As Nigeria heads into 2026, the report suggests that economic growth alone will not be sufficient to reduce poverty. Effective social and economic policy, alongside investment in human capital and infrastructure, will be essential to ensuring that growth is inclusive and sustainable.
Without decisive action, Nigeria risks entrenching poverty levels that could have long-term consequences for social stability, economic development, and public finances.
