Russia has suspended export licences for ammonium nitrate fertiliser, a move aimed at safeguarding domestic supply but one that is expected to deepen strain in already tight global markets.
The Russian agriculture ministry said the suspension, which runs until April 21, applies to previously issued export licences, with no new permits to be granted except for shipments tied to intergovernmental agreements.
Officials said the decision was taken to ensure adequate fertiliser availability for domestic farmers during the critical spring planting season, as demand rises across the country’s agricultural sector.
“The restriction was introduced to prioritise the domestic market and ensure continuity of supply during the spring agricultural season,” the ministry said in a statement.
Ammonium nitrate is a key nitrogen-based fertiliser widely used to boost crop yields, and Russia is one of the world’s leading exporters. Any disruption to its supply is therefore likely to have ripple effects across global food production systems.
The move comes at a time when fertiliser markets are already under pressure from multiple fronts, including export curbs by China and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of fertilisers, imposed restrictions on urea exports in October 2025 to secure domestic supply, and later extended those measures through August 2026. The dual constraints from Moscow and Beijing have significantly reduced availability in international markets.
Analysts warn that the latest development could intensify volatility in fertiliser prices, which have already surged in recent months. A study by Global Sovereign Advisory found that average fertiliser prices have risen by about 27 percent, with nitrogen-based products increasing by as much as 30 to 40 percent.
Geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran have added further uncertainty, particularly by disrupting trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the strategic waterway accounts for roughly one-third of global seaborne fertiliser trade, equivalent to about 16 million metric tons. Urea alone makes up nearly two-thirds of that volume, underscoring the vulnerability of supply chains to regional instability.
Russia’s decision marks a shift from its earlier posture during the 2022 energy crisis, when it capitalised on reduced European demand for natural gas to expand fertiliser production and exports. That strategy helped Moscow consolidate its position as the world’s top fertiliser exporter, with an estimated market share of nearly 19 percent in 2023.
Now, however, the focus appears to be on domestic priorities, as authorities seek to shield local farmers from rising input costs and ensure stable food production.
Industry observers say the key question is whether the suspension is a short-term measure tied to seasonal demand or a signal of a broader strategic pivot in Russia’s export policy.
Other major fertiliser exporters, including the European Union, Canada, the United States and Morocco, may struggle to fully offset the supply gap in the near term, particularly given existing logistical and production constraints.
The implications extend beyond commodity markets. The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that nearly half of the global population depends on food produced using key fertilisers such as nitrogen, phosphate and potassium.
With planting seasons underway in many regions, any sustained disruption in fertiliser supply could translate into lower crop yields and higher food prices, exacerbating food security concerns, especially in import-dependent countries.
As global markets react, attention will turn to whether Russia resumes exports after April or extends the restrictions, a decision that could shape fertiliser availability and agricultural output in the months ahead.
