Rwanda is set to reap a potential windfall from its gold sector this year, analysts and government officials say, following a sharp rise in global gold prices and a new market-opening agreement with the United States.
Gold prices surged past US$4,000 per ounce in October, reaching a record US$4,381, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts. By early December, prices were trading around US$4,180–US$4,242 per ounce, up 58 percent year-on-year, creating a favorable environment for gold exporters like Rwanda.
The East African nation exports its domestically mined gold and also refines and re-exports gold from other countries, including the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The International Monetary Fund projects that gold could account for up to half of Rwanda’s export revenue in 2025, potentially generating more than $2 billion a marked increase from US$1.5 billion in 2024.
Itzhak Fisher, chairperson of the Rwanda Mining, Gas and Petroleum Board (RMB), said during the recent Mining Week in Kigali that Rwanda continues to be a “responsible and reliable source of critical minerals, including gold,” positioning the country as a strategic partner in global mineral markets.
A key factor in Rwanda’s growing role is a deal with the United States, which allows the country to export critical minerals such as gold, graphite, tungsten, and uranium under favourable conditions, including tax exemptions. The deal emphasises traceability, governance, and shared value chains, aligning Rwanda’s mining sector with international standards and attracting investment into refining and export infrastructure.
Rwanda’s refining capabilities also allow it to process Congolese gold and other minerals legally and transparently, increasing volumes through Kigali-based refineries. Analysts say that even a modest increase in export volumes at current prices could push 2025 revenues well above last year’s record.
The National Bank of Rwanda has also diversified its reserves into gold, enhancing financial stability amid inflation risks forecast at 7.1 percent for 2025. Governor Soraya Hakuziyaremye noted that returns have exceeded expectations, though details on holdings remain undisclosed. Gold reserves are seen as a hedge against currency depreciation, global volatility, and inflation, while stimulating local demand for refined gold and supporting higher export values.
The gold sector is contributing to Rwanda’s broader economic growth. Mining and quarrying expanded by 31 percent in the second quarter of 2025, underpinning a 7 percent increase in the overall industry sector. While mining directly contributes around 3 percent to GDP, its indirect impact through export revenues estimated at US$1.75 billion in 2024 is substantial, supporting trade balance improvements and economic diversification beyond agriculture.
Rwanda aims to generate up to US$2.2 billion in mineral export revenues by 2029. Despite early-year setbacks, including EU sanctions targeting the Gasabo Gold Refinery and former mining officials over alleged gold from DRC conflict zones, operations have continued. President Paul Kagame clarified that the refinery itself was never sanctioned and remains fully operational, while defending Rwanda’s gold trade as legitimate.
“Rwanda has gold deposits. Artisanal mining is ongoing, and we are also exploring deeper reserves,” Kagame said, noting deposits in Nyamagabe near Nyungwe and minerals transiting from neighbouring countries. He emphasised the positive impact of rising gold prices on the local economy.
Rwanda also signed a US$900 million mineral deal with the European Union in February 2024 to diversify the bloc’s supply of green-transition minerals away from China. While geopolitical tensions, including disputes with the DRC, have delayed some aspects of the deal, it remains a cornerstone for integrating Rwanda into global supply chains and attracting investment into the sector.
With robust international demand, rising prices, and improved refining and export capacity, Rwanda’s gold sector is poised to play an increasingly strategic role in the country’s economic growth and global mineral markets.
