Rwanda’s export earnings plunged sharply by more than 30 percent year on year in November 2025, official data show, highlighting growing pressures on the country’s trade performance and contributing to a widening trade deficit.
According to the National Institute of Statistics Rwanda (NISR), the value of the country’s exports fell to approximately US$215 million (about Rwf313 billion) in November 2025, down 30.13 percent from the same month in 2024. This steep decline marked one of the most significant monthly drops in recent trade figures and underscored broader challenges in sustaining export momentum amid regional market disruptions and shifting global demand patterns.
The monthly report on formal external trade in goods showed that Rwanda’s balance of trade in goods posted a US$295 million deficit in November, widening by 13.43 percent compared with November 2024 and increasing 3.05 percent from October 2025. Officials said this deterioration largely reflected the slump in export receipts.
NISR data point to substantial declines in several key domestic export categories. Domestic exports dropped 50.18 percent year on year and fell 9.43 percent compared with October 2025. Among the hardest-hit sectors were mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials, which saw export values shrink by more than half, and machinery and transport equipment, which declined nearly 20 percent. Other commodity groups, including miscellaneous products and manufactured goods, also registered sharp contractions.
Trade analysts say a mix of regional and structural factors has weighed on performance. John Bosco Kalisa, a Kigali-based trade analyst, noted that political instability in neighbouring markets such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Tanzania key destinations and transit routes for Rwandan goods has disrupted trade flows and dampened demand. He pointed in particular to demonstrations and political uncertainty in Tanzania during its presidential elections as directly affecting transportation and export movements in November.
Despite the overall decline in exported volumes, some segments bucked the broader downtrend. Re-exports goods imported and then exported without significant transformation rose sharply, up nearly 54 percent compared with November 2024 and 56 percent from October 2025. Within this category, machinery and transport equipment increased dramatically, while mineral fuels and related materials also posted strong growth. Kalisa suggested that improvements in Rwanda’s logistics infrastructure, such as the Kigali Logistics Platform, have helped support re-exports by easing cross-border movement.
The value of imports into Rwanda in November 2025 was mixed: overall import values were 10.17 percent lower than in the same month of 2024 but increased by nearly 6 percent compared with October 2025. Imported categories such as mineral fuels, beverages and animal and vegetable oils all recorded higher import values. Main import partners included Tanzania, China, Kenya, India and the United Arab Emirates.
Rwanda’s export slump comes amid a broader period of economic transition. Earlier in 2025, Rwanda recorded growth in domestic export values in some quarters, with gains in traditional goods like coffee and other agricultural products, as well as rising exports to markets such as the UAE, DRC, China and the United States.
Coffee exports in particular achieved strong results in 2025, with Rwanda’s coffee industry posting record export earnings driven by higher production, robust international prices and expanded market access. However, these gains on an annual basis have not been sufficient to offset the sharp monthly declines reported in November.
Economic observers say the November figures highlight the fragility of Rwanda’s external sector in the face of shifting regional dynamics and global economic pressures. They argue that diversifying export markets, adding value to local products, and strengthening transport and logistics links especially to port corridors are critical priorities to stabilise and expand export revenues.
As Rwanda heads into 2026, policymakers are expected to focus on reinforcing trade partnerships, improving competitiveness in key sectors such as agriculture and light manufacturing, and building resilience against external shocks that affect formal trade flows.
