South Africa’s agricultural sector is cautiously optimistic after the signing of the China-Africa Economic Partnership Agreement (CAEPA), which could offer duty-free access for select South African exports to the Chinese market. The agreement, signed by South African Trade Minister Parks Tau and his Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao, comes amid tightening conditions in traditional Western markets.
The deal promises preferential treatment for key agricultural products, including wine, fruit, and macadamia nuts, which are among South Africa’s strongest export earners. However, industry stakeholders warn that the agreement’s impact will depend heavily on implementation details. “We are not yet clear on the levels of tariff reduction nor on which products are covered,” said officials in early February. Currently, Chinese import duties remain high on several items, ranging from 14 to 20 percent for wine and 12 percent for macadamia nuts.
The CAEPA initiative aligns with a broader trend in South African trade policy, which is increasingly looking eastward as Western markets grow uncertain. The European Union is reportedly considering stricter non-tariff barriers for agricultural imports, while the United States, despite extending the African Growth and Opportunity Act, remains a politically and economically volatile destination for exporters. Historically, other African markets have absorbed the bulk of South Africa’s agricultural exports, accounting for over half of export values, with maize, sugar, fruits, wine, and soy products dominating trade flows.
China, with its vast consumer base, represents a potential growth channel, but not an automatic replacement for existing markets. Chinese customs data compiled by SunSirs show that agricultural imports reached USD 207.4 billion in 2025, a 3.6 percent decline year-on-year, with the agricultural trade deficit exceeding USD 100 billion. Yet within the overall slowdown, demand for specific products has increased: fruit imports rose 6.7 percent, livestock products grew 2 percent, and sugar purchases jumped over 13 percent. Grain imports, by contrast, fell nearly 50 percent, reflecting strategic substitution and inventory management decisions.
This demand pattern aligns with South Africa’s export strengths. Citrus fruits, grapes, apples, pears, wine, beef, and lamb are already shipped to Asia and the Middle East, which accounted for 17 percent of South African agricultural exports in the fourth quarter of 2025. For industry observers, the CAEPA agreement is likely to reinforce these existing trade flows rather than trigger a wholesale pivot away from African or Western markets.
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Experts caution that preferential access alone will not guarantee competitiveness. Sanitary standards, logistical challenges, and entrenched competition from Latin American suppliers remain significant hurdles. South African exporters will need to adapt their production, quality, and certification processes to meet Chinese standards if they are to capitalize on new opportunities.
“CAEPA represents targeted diversification rather than a complete alternative to traditional markets,” said an industry analyst. The success of the agreement will depend on detailed implementation measures, the selection of covered products, and the capacity of South African producers to meet Chinese regulatory and quality requirements.
As South Africa navigates this new trade relationship, the agricultural sector is balancing cautious optimism with pragmatism. While zero tariffs could provide a welcome boost to exports of high-value products, officials acknowledge that access alone is not a guarantee of market success in one of the world’s most demanding consumer markets.
