South Africa’s agricultural sector closed 2025 on a historic high, with exports climbing to a record US$15.1 billion, even as shipments to the United States declined sharply in the second half of the year amid new trade barriers.
The export milestone represents a 10 percent year-on-year increase and marks the seventh consecutive annual rise in agricultural exports, highlighting the sector’s growing resilience despite shifting global trade dynamics. Analysts say the performance reflects South Africa’s ability to diversify export markets at a time of mounting uncertainty in traditional Western destinations.
The strong showing came against the backdrop of increasing trade pressure from the United States. New tariffs imposed on selected agricultural products weighed heavily on South African shipments, particularly in the latter part of the year. According to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, exports to the US fell by 11 percent in the third quarter of 2025 before plunging by 39 percent in the final quarter.
“The tariffs imposed on some products weighed heavily on shipments to the US in the latter part of the year,” Sihlobo said, noting that access to the American market has become increasingly uncertain for South African exporters.
As exports to the US weakened, South Africa leaned more heavily on alternative markets to sustain growth. The rest of Africa emerged as the country’s largest agricultural export destination, accounting for 53 percent of shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025. Asia and the Middle East together accounted for 17 percent, while the European Union made up 16 percent.
By contrast, the Americas, including the United States, accounted for just 4 percent of South Africa’s agricultural exports during the same period, underscoring a significant shift in trade patterns.
The data point to a broader realignment of South Africa’s agricultural trade towards regional and emerging markets, reducing reliance on traditional Western partners. Analysts suggest that if tariff barriers persist, the trend could deepen, further positioning Africa, Asia, and the Middle East as key growth engines for South African farm exports in the years ahead.
