South Africa’s agricultural exports to the Middle East, valued at US$1.3 billion in 2025, are under threat as escalating geopolitical tensions in the region disrupt trade, industry officials warned Friday.
The Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) said military developments involving the United States, Israel, and Iran since late February have heightened risks to South African shipments, which include citrus, apples, pears, strawberries, grapes, beef, goat and sheep meat, maize, and various nuts.
“Shipping costs are increasing […] Citrus, strawberry and maize harvest seasons will soon begin across the country, and as long as the conflict in the Middle East continues, trade disruptions will persist,” Agbiz said.
Middle Eastern countries including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait imported US$1.3 billion worth of South African agricultural goods last year, accounting for 8 percent of the country’s total agricultural export revenue of US$15.1 billion.
Agbiz noted that the deteriorating security environment is increasing logistics costs and creating uncertainty over the continuity of trade, even as key export seasons approach. Disruptions have been compounded by congestion in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for shipments to the region.
Several major shipping companies, including Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company, and CMA CGM, have introduced new surcharges in recent weeks to offset heightened risks and additional operating costs.
More Read
Exploring alternative markets
In response, South African exporters are exploring alternative markets in Asia, Europe, and the United States. Agbiz recommended targeting countries such as China, India, and Singapore, as well as expanding shipments to the European Union and the United Kingdom.
For citrus products, exports to the United States now benefit from relatively low tariffs, in some cases zero for products such as nuts, oranges, and juice, providing an opportunity to redirect supply.
Industry analysts cautioned that if the conflict persists and alternative markets fail to absorb the redirected volumes, the South African agro-industrial sector could face slower export growth in 2026.
Strong export performance faces new headwinds
South Africa’s agricultural and food exports have grown steadily over the past six years, rising from nearly US$10 billion in 2020 to US$15.1 billion in 2025. The Middle East has become an increasingly important market, particularly for high-value horticultural products such as citrus and berries.
The conflict threatens to disrupt not only revenues but also supply chains, with exporters forced to reassess shipping routes, insurance costs, and risk exposure. Some companies are already evaluating the capacity of alternative markets to absorb volumes initially destined for the Middle East.
“Producers must act quickly to diversify markets to ensure that the harvests reach buyers and minimize losses,” Agbiz said.
The organization urged continued monitoring of the situation and collaboration between government, exporters, and shipping partners to mitigate the impact of disruptions.
While the immediate concern is the 2026 export season, the broader risk lies in potential slower growth in agricultural exports if market access remains constrained and shipping costs continue to rise.
South Africa’s agro-industrial sector, a key contributor to employment and rural livelihoods, depends heavily on international markets. Observers say the current crisis underscores the importance of diversifying export destinations and strengthening resilience in logistics and trade infrastructure.
