S&P Global Ratings has maintained Morocco’s sovereign credit rating at BBB- with a stable outlook, keeping the North African country among the few African economies with investment-grade status. However, the rating agency cautioned that Morocco’s largest export earner, OCP Group, faces supply-chain risks as Middle East tensions disrupt vital sulfur imports needed for fertilizer production.
The state-controlled phosphate giant, in which the Moroccan government holds a 95 percent stake, generated US$11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, a 17 percent increase from the previous year. OCP controls roughly 70 percent of global phosphate rock reserves and dominates the international market for fertilizers used in Brazil, India, and other major agricultural producers. Fertilizers accounted for 21.3 percent of Morocco’s total exports in 2025, surpassing revenues from tourism, automotive exports, and other sectors, according to S&P.
Producing complex fertilizers such as DAP and MAP requires sulfur, nearly all of which Morocco imports from the Persian Gulf. The country annually brings in about 3.7 million metric tons of sulfur, essential for processing phosphate rock into industrial-grade fertilizers. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 4, following military strikes in Iran, has blocked shipments, halting deliveries to OCP’s Atlantic coast plants in Jorf Lasfar and Safi.
“The shutdown has halted tanker movements and disrupted deliveries of both finished fertilizers and key raw materials, triggering a cascading effect on phosphatic fertilizer production,” the North Dakota State University Agricultural Trade Monitor reported in March 2026.
The disruption leaves OCP in a difficult position. While Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden are also unable to ship, creating heightened global demand for Moroccan fertilizer, the company cannot increase output without the sulfur it needs. Each week of continued disruption further constrains production of complex fertilizers, which generate the bulk of OCP’s revenue.
The impact on international markets is already apparent. Benchmark fertilizer prices have surged from roughly US$500 to over US$650 per ton since the closure, compounded by China’s suspension of phosphate exports until at least August 2026. Morocco’s finance ministry said these disruptions add pressure to the global supply chain while elevating domestic fiscal risk.
For the Moroccan government, the stakes are high. OCP pays significant dividends to the state, linking the company’s production directly to public finances. The 2026 budget assumes oil at US$65 per barrel, yet Brent crude is trading above US$120, further straining fiscal assumptions. S&P noted that a sharp deterioration in external balances or budget performance could jeopardize the country’s BBB- rating.
OCP is taking steps to reduce external dependency. The group has committed US$13 billion to domestic green ammonia production, with a first plant in Tarfaya expected to come online by the end of 2026. While this will eventually reduce reliance on imported ammonia, it does not address the immediate sulfur shortage, and OCP has not disclosed how long current stockpiles can sustain production.
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S&P’s next review of Morocco’s rating will test whether the country’s economic buffers can withstand the mounting supply and fiscal risks. With legislative elections set for September 23, the government has limited flexibility to absorb shocks, leaving the fertilizer-dependent export sector under close watch.
Morocco’s ability to navigate this “sulfur trap” will be critical not only for OCP’s industrial performance but also for national economic stability and investor confidence in the months ahead.
