Togo’s population is set to reach 8.685 million people on January 1, 2026, extending a steady demographic rise driven mainly by high birth rates and improving life expectancy, according to new projections by the United Nations Population Division.
The estimates, based on data from the country’s fifth General Population and Housing Census (RGPH-5), confirm that population growth in the West African nation remains robust, despite a gradual decline in fertility. The census was conducted with technical support from the United Nations Population Fund.
Togo’s population was revised upward to 8.133 million in 2023 after the integration of detailed results from the 2022 census. It then rose to 8.314 million in 2024 and 8.499 million in 2025, putting the net increase over the three-year period at more than half a million people.
Between 2025 and 2026 alone, the population is expected to grow by about 186,000 people. Demographers say the rise is largely explained by a natural surplus, as births continue to outnumber deaths while net migration remains limited.
With an average annual growth rate of around 2.1 to 2.2 percent, population expansion in Togo has remained relatively stable in recent years. The increase has followed an almost linear pattern, with the country adding roughly 180,000 to 190,000 people each year.
Although fertility is gradually declining, it remains high by global standards. The total fertility rate is projected to fall from 4.19 children per woman in 2023 to about 4.01 in 2026, down sharply from more than six children per woman in the early 1960s. Over the same period, the crude birth rate has dropped from nearly 48 births per 1,000 inhabitants to just over 31, reflecting changing reproductive behaviour and greater access to family planning.
At the same time, life expectancy continues to rise. Togolese are expected to live an average of 63.3 years in 2026, compared with 62.7 years in 2023 and just 43.5 years in 1960. Infant mortality has also declined significantly, falling from more than 134 deaths per 1,000 live births in the 1960s to around 39 by 2026.
Health experts attribute these improvements to better access to medical care, expanded vaccination programmes and gradual gains in maternal and child health services, even as challenges persist in rural areas.
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Despite these advances, Togo’s population structure remains heavily skewed toward youth. The median age stood at 18.1 years in 2023, meaning half of the population is under 18. This youthful demographic profile is expected to persist over the coming decade.
The proportion of people aged 15 to 64 — considered the working-age population — is projected to rise from about 54 percent in 2023 to more than 55 percent in 2026, potentially offering a demographic dividend if sufficient jobs are created.
However, analysts caution that sustained population growth also places pressure on public services, including education, healthcare, housing and infrastructure. Schools and health facilities already face capacity constraints, while job creation has struggled to keep pace with the rapid entry of young people into the labour market.
According to UN projections, Togo’s population is expected to reach around 9.46 million by 2030, continuing its upward trajectory without a sharp acceleration. For policymakers, the data underscores the urgency of long-term planning to ensure that demographic growth translates into economic and social gains rather than added strain on limited resources.
Togo’s latest population figures reflect a long-term demographic trend that has been unfolding since independence: steady growth driven largely by a high natural increase, even as fertility gradually declines. With a population of 8.685 million projected for January 1, 2026, the country continues to expand at an annual rate of just over 2%, in line with averages seen across much of West Africa. These projections are produced by the United Nations Population Division, drawing on data from Togo’s fifth General Population and Housing Census (RGPH-5), conducted with support from the United Nations Population Fund.
Demographic growth in Togo is still primarily explained by the gap between births and deaths rather than migration. While fertility rates have been declining for decades—from more than six children per woman in the 1960s to about four today—they remain high enough to sustain strong population momentum. At the same time, improvements in healthcare, vaccination coverage, maternal services and disease control have significantly reduced mortality and raised life expectancy, reinforcing this natural increase.
The country is also well advanced in what demographers describe as a gradual but incomplete demographic transition. Infant mortality has fallen sharply, and Togolese now live, on average, nearly 20 years longer than in the early post-independence period. Yet the population structure remains overwhelmingly young, with a median age of just over 18 years. This youthful profile presents both opportunities and challenges: it can support future economic growth through an expanding labour force, but it also places sustained pressure on education systems, health services, housing and job creation.
For policymakers, these projections are a critical planning tool. Anticipated growth toward nearly 9.5 million people by 2030 underscores the need for sustained investment in schools, healthcare, urban infrastructure and employment-generating sectors. How effectively Togo translates its demographic dynamics into economic and social gains will depend on its ability to harness this youthful population while managing the demands that come with continued population growth.
