Uganda’s economy remains stable and resilient despite rising global geopolitical tensions, a senior government official said Thursday, as the East African country projected stronger growth and subdued inflation for the current fiscal year.
Ramathan Ggoobi, permanent secretary at the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, told reporters in Kampala that Uganda’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 7.0 percent in the 2025/26 financial year, which ends on June 30, up from 6.3 percent recorded in the previous fiscal year.
The improved outlook, he said, reflects the economy’s ability to withstand external shocks and sustain momentum across key sectors.
Preliminary government estimates show that Uganda’s economy expanded by 8.5 percent in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, compared with 5.4 percent during the same period in 2024/25.
Ggoobi attributed the stronger performance to robust aggregate demand, rising investment and stronger exports, supported by increased production across a broad range of sectors including industry, services, agriculture, forestry and fisheries.
“The economy has remained stable and resilient despite shocks resulting from geopolitical tensions,” Ggoobi said, according to remarks carried by local and international media.
By the end of June, Uganda’s GDP is projected to reach US$68.4 billion, while GDP per capita is expected to rise to $1,399, according to figures from the finance ministry.
The official also pointed to the relative strength of the Ugandan shilling, saying the local currency had remained stable even as some emerging and frontier markets faced pressure from external uncertainty, including recent conflict in the Middle East and volatility in global commodity markets.
Inflation, a key concern for policymakers across Africa, has also remained contained. Uganda’s annual headline inflation is averaging 3.3 percent in the current financial year, below the Bank of Uganda’s 5 percent target, Ggoobi said.
The low inflation rate provides some relief for households and businesses and gives policymakers room to maintain macroeconomic stability while supporting growth.
Uganda’s economy has been one of the stronger performers in East Africa in recent years, buoyed by agriculture, construction, services and public infrastructure spending. The country has also been positioning itself for future oil production, although delays in major petroleum projects have pushed back expectations for a broader economic boost from the sector.
Even so, officials have argued that non-oil sectors are continuing to provide a solid base for expansion.
The upbeat outlook comes as several African economies face mounting pressure from rising debt-servicing costs, tighter financing conditions and renewed geopolitical uncertainty that has driven up global fuel and food prices.
Uganda, like many import-dependent economies, remains exposed to swings in global commodity markets. However, officials say prudent macroeconomic management and resilient domestic demand have helped cushion the impact of external shocks.
Economists say sustaining the current growth trajectory will depend on maintaining investor confidence, expanding export competitiveness and ensuring inflation remains under control, particularly if external conditions worsen.
The latest projections suggest Uganda is on course to post one of the region’s stronger growth performances this year, reinforcing the government’s view that the economy remains on a stable footing despite a volatile international environment.
For Kampala, the challenge now will be to convert strong headline growth into broader gains in jobs, incomes and living standards as the country continues to navigate global uncertainty.
