Uganda’s currency is expected to weaken against the U.S. dollar in the coming days due to rising foreign exchange demand from dividend payments, while most major African currencies including those of Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya and Zambia are forecast to remain broadly stable, traders said on Thursday.
Market participants said demand for dollars from foreign-owned companies repatriating profits is likely to exert pressure on the Ugandan shilling in the near term.
Commercial banks quoted the currency at about 3,595/3,605 per dollar on Thursday, slightly weaker than last week’s closing levels of 3,585/3,595.
Traders expect the shilling to trade within the 3,580 to 3,620 range against the greenback over the next week as seasonal corporate dollar demand intensifies.
“It’s the period when foreign-owned firms are paying dividends abroad, and that typically increases demand for dollars,” a Kampala-based trader said.
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Across West Africa, Nigeria’s naira is projected to remain relatively stable, supported by continued interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria aimed at maintaining exchange rate stability.
The naira traded around 1,354 per dollar on the official market on Thursday, compared with 1,357 a week earlier, while parallel market rates hovered near 1,365 per dollar.
Currency dealers said sustained participation by the central bank in foreign exchange markets has helped anchor expectations and limit volatility despite persistent dollar demand.
“I expect the market to remain within the 1,350 to 1,360 range next week,” a Lagos-based trader said, noting that recent policy actions have balanced supply and demand conditions.
In Ghana, the cedi is expected to remain range-bound amid subdued corporate demand for foreign currency and steady inflows from the mining sector.
The cedi traded at approximately 10.60 to the dollar, strengthening from about 10.99 recorded a week earlier, according to market data.
Traders attributed the currency’s resilience to improved foreign exchange liquidity supported by gold export earnings and regular foreign exchange auctions conducted by the Bank of Ghana.
Market analysts said reduced demand from the energy and commerce sectors alongside improved interbank liquidity conditions have also eased pressure on the local currency.
“We expect the constructive tone to persist, supported by balanced flows and continued policy support,” a currency trader in Accra said.
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Kenya’s shilling is similarly forecast to remain stable after recent equilibrium between foreign exchange supply and demand.
Commercial banks quoted the currency at 128.80/129.10 per dollar, unchanged from last week’s levels, reflecting calm trading conditions in East Africa’s largest economy.
“Demand and supply are currently balanced, so there is limited pressure on the currency,” a Nairobi-based trader said.
Meanwhile, Zambia’s kwacha is expected to hold firm following strong gains earlier in the year driven largely by robust copper export revenues.
The currency of Africa’s second-largest copper producer traded at about 18.99 per dollar on Thursday compared with 19.08 a week earlier.
Analysts said copper export earnings continue to provide critical foreign exchange inflows, helping stabilise the kwacha despite global market uncertainties.
Regional currencies have generally benefited from improved commodity export receipts, tighter monetary policies and central bank interventions aimed at managing volatility.
However, traders warned that external risks — including fluctuating commodity prices, global financial tightening and shifts in investor sentiment — remain key factors that could influence currency movements across African markets in the weeks ahead.
