Tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia have intensified sharply, raising fears of a renewed and broader armed conflict along their shared border, particularly around the volatile Tigray region. Both governments have sounded the alarm about preparing for the possibility of war, with Ethiopia’s stated desire for access to the Red Sea emerging as a major point of dispute.
Relations between Asmara and Addis Ababa were once historically fractious. After a brutal border war from 1998 to 2000, a peace summit in 2018 appeared to reset ties, with Ethiopian leadership under then‑Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed normalising relations and opening borders. However, that detente has frayed amid changing political landscapes inside both nations and renewed strategic competition.
According to reports from RFI, Ethiopian authorities have made public statements that securing sovereign access to the Red Sea, through territory currently under Eritrean control, is a matter of national interest for landlocked Ethiopia. For Ethiopia, which lost Red Sea access following Eritrea’s independence in 1993, access to the coast represents both economic opportunity and strategic leverage in international trade. The reliance on Djibouti’s ports and long transit routes has weighed on Addis Ababa’s foreign policy calculus.
Eritrea’s leadership, however, views such aspirations as a direct provocation. Government officials and local commentators have framed Ethiopia’s rhetoric as a threat to Eritrean sovereignty and territorial integrity. Asmara insists that its borders and control over coastal territory are non‑negotiable, especially given its historical emphasis on independence and self‑defence.
The broader security context has grown more unstable as violence has escalated in the Tigray region, a northern Ethiopian province that shares a frontier with Eritrea. Despite a peace agreement that ended the decade‑long Tigray conflict in late 2022, sporadic clashes and militia activity have persisted. Eritrean forces were previously involved in the Tigray conflict alongside Ethiopian federal troops, leaving deep scars and mistrust between communities and state actors alike.
Recent border incidents have included exchanges of fire, troop build ups and displacement of civilians living in contested areas. Humanitarian agencies report mounting fear among local populations who recall earlier destructive upheavals. The prospect of full‑scale confrontations is particularly worrying given the scale and intensity of prior wars in the Horn of Africa.
Regional organisations and international partners have urged restraint, warning that renewed conflict could destabilise not only Eritrea and Ethiopia but also neighbouring nations like Sudan and Djibouti. The strategic importance of the Red Sea corridor, a major artery for global shipping and energy flows, adds an extra layer of international concern. Escalation near these maritime routes could have consequences far exceeding the immediate region.
Analysts highlight that negotiations over access and trade rights have been ongoing for decades, but Ethiopia’s recent shift toward more assertive language reflects ongoing frustration with economic bottlenecks and geopolitical isolation as a landlocked state. In contrast, Eritrea’s government has remained staunchly resistant to external influence, prioritising self‑sufficiency and strict control over its borders and military capabilities.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s political standing, already complicated by internal ethnic divisions and governance challenges, adds further complexity to the crisis. Domestic pressures and narratives of national pride may factor into Addis Ababa’s posture toward Eritrea, potentially hardening negotiation stances on both sides.
Despite diplomatic efforts by the African Union and United Nations envoys to prevent escalation, clear channels of dialogue seem limited as mutual distrust deepens. Human rights groups have also raised alarms about the potential for renewed violations should hostilities break out again, recalling atrocities committed during earlier episodes of conflict in the region.
The situation in Eritrea and Ethiopia remains dynamic and precarious. What began as rhetorical posturing around access and sovereignty could rapidly transform into kinetic confrontation if not actively managed through meaningful diplomacy. The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining whether cooler heads prevail or renewed war becomes a tragic reality in the Horn of Africa.
Eritrea withdraws from IGAD amid renewed tensions with Ethiopia
