The World Bank is set to approve a fresh US$500 million loan to Nigeria next month to boost agricultural productivity, strengthen value chains and create jobs across participating states.
Details of the planned facility are contained in the Project Information Document for the Nigeria Sustainable Agricultural Value-Chains for Growth (AGROW), obtained from the bank’s website. The document lists an estimated approval date of March 30, 2026, with a Total Operation Cost of US$500 million and Total Financing of US$500 million.
The entire financing will be provided by the International Development Association (IDA) as an IDA credit of US$500 million. The borrower is the Federal Republic of Nigeria, while the implementing agencies are the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security and participating states.
According to the document, the project’s development objective is to increase smallholder productivity and strengthen targeted agricultural value chains in participating states. The review process has progressed beyond appraisal to the decision stage, with the Bank noting that “the review did authorise the team to appraise and negotiate,” signalling that the project has cleared a key internal hurdle ahead of final approval.
The Bank highlighted Nigeria’s structural challenges, stating that creating more and better jobs while addressing food and nutrition insecurity remain pressing development issues. Agriculture remains Nigeria’s largest employer, with roughly one-third of the working population dependent on the sector, while primary agriculture employs about 21 million people.
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Despite its vast potential, Nigeria imports approximately US$10 billion worth of food annually, underscoring deep structural weaknesses in domestic production and value addition.
The AGROW project will adopt what the Bank describes as a private sector-led, public sector-facilitated approach to enhance smallholder productivity, integrate farmers into structured output markets and promote value addition. The initiative aligns with the Federal Government’s Renewed Hope Agenda and is positioned as both “MFD-Enabling” and “Private Capital Enabling,” indicating a focus on mobilising private investment.
Structurally, the US$500 million facility will be deployed across four major components: integrating smallholder farmers into competitive value chains, modernising smallholder production systems, strengthening policy and regulatory frameworks to support private investment in input markets, and project coordination and monitoring.
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Under the value chain integration component, the project will support aggregation models connecting farmers to off-takers and agribusinesses, aiming to reduce transaction costs and improve supply reliability. On the production side, investments will target research, extension systems, improved seeds and digital agriculture platforms to raise yields and climate resilience.
If approved as scheduled, the US$500 million IDA credit will add to Nigeria’s growing portfolio of World Bank loans. Nigeria’s debt to the IDA surged by US$1.9 billion within one year to reach US$18.7 billion as of December 31, 2025, up from US$16.8 billion at the end of 2024 — an 11.3 per cent year-on-year increase.
The latest figures place Nigeria as the third-largest borrower in the IDA portfolio, behind Bangladesh (US$23.0 billion) and Pakistan (US$19.4 billion).
As of June 30, 2025, Nigeria’s total external debt stood at US$46.98 billion, according to the Debt Management Office. Of this amount, the World Bank Group accounted for US$19.39 billion — comprising US$18.04 billion from the IDA and US$1.35 billion from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
This represents 41.3 per cent of Nigeria’s external debt stock, reinforcing the Bank’s dominant role in financing the country’s development programmes amid tightening fiscal space and global market volatility.
