Zimbabwe has raised its economic growth forecast for 2026 to at least 8.5 percent, marking the country’s fastest expansion in 14 years, as authorities point to stabilisation gains under a recently concluded reform programme monitored by the International Monetary Fund.
The revised outlook was announced on Tuesday, February 10, by George Guvamatanga, permanent secretary at the Ministry of Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion, during the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town.
“The economy is now expected to grow by a minimum of 8.5 percent in 2026. I would think it will be in the 9 to 10 percent range, which represents a very strong growth trajectory,” Guvamatanga said. He attributed the improved outlook to ease-of-doing-business reforms and continued recovery in agriculture and mining, two of Zimbabwe’s most critical sectors.
If achieved, the forecast would represent Zimbabwe’s strongest growth performance since 2012 and nearly double the 5 percent growth projection the IMF has set for 2025. The improved outlook follows agreement earlier this month between Zimbabwe and the IMF on a Staff-Monitored Program, a non-financing arrangement designed to guide and assess the government’s reform efforts.
Under the programme, IMF staff will monitor progress on fiscal discipline, monetary policy coordination, foreign exchange market reforms and governance improvements. While it does not involve immediate funding, successful implementation could pave the way for future financial support or emergency assistance from the multilateral lender.
Long Road From Crisis
Zimbabwe’s economy has endured decades of instability following land reforms in the late 1990s under former president Robert Mugabe, which saw large-scale farms expropriated. The policy triggered a collapse in agricultural output, sharp declines in exports, capital flight and the accumulation of about US$13 billion in external arrears owed to institutions including the World Bank, the African Development Bank, the European Investment Bank and Paris Club creditors.
With access to international financing cut off, authorities resorted to money creation to fund spending, fuelling hyperinflation that eventually forced the abandonment of the Zimbabwean dollar in 2009 in favour of the US dollar. Since then, persistent debt overhang and policy uncertainty have constrained investment and growth.
The IMF has made clear that any future financial support will depend on comprehensive debt restructuring, including clearance of arrears and sustained economic reforms. In February 2025, the Fund said progress on debt resolution and macroeconomic stabilisation would be essential before Zimbabwe could regain access to its resources.
Signs of Stabilisation
Authorities say recent indicators suggest the reform push is beginning to yield results. In late January 2026, the Finance Ministry reported that inflation had fallen below 10 percent for the first time since 1997. At the same time, foreign exchange reserves backing the country’s gold-backed currency, Zimbabwe Gold, rose above US$1.2 billion.
The government has attributed these gains to tighter fiscal controls, reduced reliance on central bank financing and closer coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities. Officials argue that restoring macroeconomic stability is critical to rebuilding confidence, attracting investment and unlocking growth in key sectors such as mining, agriculture and manufacturing.
With reforms under IMF scrutiny and commodity-rich sectors recovering, the government believes Zimbabwe is positioned for its strongest growth in more than a decade provided policy discipline is maintained and debt resolution efforts continue.
