South Africa recorded its first current account surplus in more than two years in the final quarter of 2025, supported by rising precious metal prices and a stronger trade balance, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) reported on Thursday.
The country’s current account switched to a surplus of 0.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter, reversing a 0.9 percent deficit recorded in the third quarter, central bank data showed.
Measured in nominal terms, the current account surplus stood at 50.2 billion rand (US$3.03 billion) for October–December, compared with a deficit of 72.0 billion rand in the preceding quarter. The last time South Africa posted a surplus was in the third quarter of 2023.
The improvement was largely driven by a sharp increase in the trade surplus, which widened to 282.2 billion rand in the fourth quarter from 169.0 billion rand in the third quarter. Analysts said higher export revenues from precious metals, particularly gold, were a key contributor, as global prices for the commodity climbed in the latter part of 2025.
“South Africa’s current account position benefited from stronger commodity prices and a rebound in export receipts, which offset slower import growth,” said Wichard Cilliers, a market analyst at TreasuryONE.
The SARB’s figures also reflect a broader stabilisation in South Africa’s external sector, as the rand had experienced volatility earlier in the year amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Higher global energy costs had previously increased import bills, weighing on the current account.
The positive fourth-quarter reading is expected to provide some relief to policymakers and investors concerned about South Africa’s external vulnerabilities. Economists said the surplus could help reduce pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves and limit the need for additional borrowing to finance external deficits.
South Africa’s economy, the most industrialised on the African continent, relies heavily on mineral exports, with gold, platinum and other precious metals playing a pivotal role in the trade balance. In recent months, stronger global demand for these commodities has lifted export earnings, partially offsetting continued weakness in other sectors such as manufacturing and energy-intensive industries.
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Despite the quarterly surplus, South Africa still faces challenges in sustaining a positive external balance over the medium term. Imports of machinery, vehicles, and petroleum products remain significant, while domestic consumption and infrastructure investment continue to support demand for foreign goods.
Analysts noted that maintaining a healthy current account will depend on the interplay of commodity prices, exchange rate stability, and domestic economic performance. “While the Q4 surplus is encouraging, ongoing monitoring of export diversification and import growth will be essential to ensure that the external position remains stable,” said Lerato Mokoena, an economist at Standard Bank.
South Africa’s trade surplus, the main driver of the current account improvement, also underscores the country’s reliance on raw materials exports. The SARB noted that stronger global metal prices, particularly for gold and platinum, contributed to higher export receipts, while imports remained relatively contained.
The quarterly data comes amid wider economic and market developments, including moderate GDP growth, ongoing labour market pressures, and global inflationary concerns. The positive current account reading may bolster confidence among investors, particularly in the currency and bond markets, as the rand remains sensitive to shifts in the external balance.
Overall, South Africa’s return to a current account surplus in Q4 2025 marks a welcome reversal after several quarters of deficits, highlighting the importance of commodity exports and prudent macroeconomic management in maintaining external stability.
