Morocco’s economy is projected to grow by 5.6 percent in 2026, up from an estimated 4.8 percent in 2025, driven by a strong rebound in agriculture and resilient non-farm activity, according to Bank Al-Maghrib, the country’s central bank. The announcement followed a board meeting held on March 17 in Rabat, which reviewed national and global economic developments, including geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility.
The central bank said favorable weather conditions are expected to boost the harvest of Morocco’s three main cereals to around 82 million quintals in 2026. This would support a significant 14.4 percent rise in agricultural value added, contributing substantially to overall GDP growth. The strong performance in agriculture comes after a challenging previous year, highlighting the sector’s critical role in stabilizing the economy and supporting rural livelihoods.
Non-agricultural activities are also expected to remain robust, supported primarily by investment momentum in infrastructure, construction, and other key economic sectors. Bank Al-Maghrib projects growth in non-farm sectors to hover around 4.5 percent, reflecting resilience in the broader economy despite external uncertainties. Overall, Morocco’s total GDP growth is forecast to reach 5.6 percent in 2026, before moderating to 3.5 percent in 2027, assuming a return to average agricultural output levels.
Inflation is projected to remain low at 0.8 percent in 2026, thanks to improved supply of certain food products and lower fuel prices, before gradually rising to 1.4 percent in 2027. The central bank emphasized that these moderate inflation levels will help maintain purchasing power and support domestic demand, even as global commodity prices remain volatile.
Bank Al-Maghrib also provided projections for Morocco’s external accounts. The central bank expects the current account deficit to widen slightly to 3.1 percent of GDP in 2026, from 2.3 percent in 2025, primarily due to higher commodity import prices. The deficit is projected to narrow to 2.5 percent in 2027 as global conditions stabilize. Exports are expected to benefit from growth in automotive and phosphate sales, continued tourism receipts, and rising remittances from Moroccans living abroad. These inflows, combined with prudent fiscal management, are expected to support a healthy external position.
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Official foreign exchange reserves are projected to continue increasing, reaching 482 billion dirhams (US$51.3 billion) by 2027, equivalent to nearly six months of import cover. This buffer is expected to enhance Morocco’s resilience to external shocks, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine, which could influence global commodity prices, trade flows, and investor confidence.
The central bank noted that while the economic outlook is positive, the country remains exposed to external risks, including fluctuations in energy prices and potential disruptions to trade. Policymakers are encouraged to maintain sound macroeconomic management, support diversification of economic activity, and strengthen structural reforms to sustain growth and employment.
Bank Al-Maghrib concluded that Morocco’s economic performance in 2026 will rely on a combination of a strong agricultural rebound, continued investment in non-farm sectors, and prudent management of external vulnerabilities. With moderate inflation, stable reserves, and a resilient export sector, the Moroccan economy is positioned to maintain robust growth while navigating global uncertainties.
