Nigeria’s economy is back on a growth path after years of fiscal strain, external shocks and policy instability, according to a new report that highlights strong gains in output and improved macroeconomic indicators following sweeping reforms.
The report by Lagos-based research firm Quartus Economics, titled “The Journey to a Trillion-Dollar Economy: Nigeria on the Rise Again,” draws on data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
It said Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose sharply in nominal dollar terms, climbing from about US$181 billion in 2023 to US$252 billion in 2024, and further to US$307.5 billion in 2025, signalling a rebound in economic activity.
Lagos, Nigeria, West Africa
The report attributes part of the expansion to broader macroeconomic adjustments, including currency movements and policy reforms introduced under President Bola Tinubu since taking office in May 2023.
These reforms include the removal of fuel subsidies, liberalisation of foreign exchange controls and a significant devaluation of the naira — measures designed to attract investment but which have also contributed to a severe cost-of-living crisis.
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Despite domestic pressures, Nigeria’s external position has strengthened, with foreign reserves reaching a 13-year high of US$50.5 billion in February 2026, according to official data cited in the report.
GDP per capita, however, remains under pressure despite recent gains. The report notes that income per person fell from US$4,320 in 2014 to a low of US$1,083 in 2024, before recovering modestly to US$1,295 in 2025.
The rebound in output has been supported by reforms such as banking sector recapitalisation, tax system overhauls and plans to rebalance national accounts to better reflect current economic activity.
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Authorities in Abuja have set an ambitious target of transforming Nigeria into a US$1 trillion economy by 2030, a goal that depends heavily on sustaining higher growth rates and addressing structural constraints.
However, the report warns that persistent challenges — including chronic power shortages, weak infrastructure and high production costs — remain significant barriers to long-term growth.
Nigeria’s recent performance has also been strong relative to regional peers. The report estimates that the country recorded 22 percent growth in dollar terms in 2025, outperforming the sub-Saharan African average of 10.3 percent.
It also compared Nigeria’s performance with other African economies, noting stronger growth than South Africa, Egypt, Kenya and several others, though trailing Ghana in dollar GDP expansion.
According to the report, Nigeria added about 4.8 million people in 2025, but still managed to record robust output growth, with per capita GDP rising by 19.5 percent over the year.
Analysts say the figures suggest early signs of macroeconomic stabilisation, but caution that growth remains fragile and uneven.
“The economy is adjusting after major policy shifts,” the report noted, adding that sustained progress will depend on whether reforms translate into real productivity gains and job creation.
While investor sentiment has improved in some sectors, high inflation and elevated living costs continue to weigh on households, underscoring the uneven distribution of the recovery.
For policymakers, the challenge now is to convert short-term macroeconomic gains into sustained, inclusive growth capable of supporting Nigeria’s long-term development ambitions.
