Group of Seven foreign ministers opened talks in France on Thursday under the shadow of the war in Iran, with European allies warning that the conflict is becoming a major threat to the global economy even as they acknowledge they have little leverage over Washington’s next move.
The two-day meeting, held at the historic Abbaye des Vaux-de-Cernay outside Paris, has placed the Middle East crisis and the war in Ukraine at the top of the agenda, with diplomats also grappling with the broader fallout from an increasingly unpredictable U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump.
European governments are pushing for clarity from Washington over the scope and endgame of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, particularly as the conflict continues to disrupt energy supplies and unsettle financial markets.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is only expected to join the gathering on Friday, leaving European partners to spend the first day of talks assessing the damage from a crisis they say they were never meaningfully consulted on.
The economic stakes are considerable. The war has rattled global energy markets and intensified fears over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime chokepoint through which around a fifth of the world’s oil supplies normally passes.
Diplomats and ministers have warned that prolonged disruption there could trigger a deeper inflation shock, worsen industrial costs and hit vulnerable import-dependent economies especially hard, including across Africa and parts of Asia. Reuters reported that the G7 is also focused on the closure of Hormuz and its impact on global energy flows.
European officials have increasingly framed the crisis not only as a regional war but as a direct threat to global economic stability.
Their concern is sharpened by the fact that the United States appears to be both the central military actor and the only power with meaningful influence over whether the conflict escalates further or moves toward diplomacy.
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That imbalance has left European allies in an awkward position: politically exposed to the consequences of the war, but largely shut out of the decision-making.
Officials say one of their main aims in France is to hear directly from Rubio on whether there is a genuine diplomatic channel still open with Tehran, or whether the conflict is heading into a more dangerous and prolonged phase. Reuters said allies are hoping to gain greater clarity from the U.S. on military operations and whether any meaningful diplomatic path exists.
The broader diplomatic atmosphere is also unusually tense.
The G7, once known for coordinated positions among the world’s leading democracies, is now struggling to preserve even basic unity on some of the most pressing global crises.
Reuters reported that officials have abandoned plans for a broad joint communique at the France meeting to avoid exposing open splits among members.
That reflects a wider erosion of trust, especially among European allies who have been unsettled by abrupt U.S. policy shifts on trade, security and conflict management since Trump returned to office in 2025.
The Iran war has become the latest and perhaps most dangerous example of that unpredictability.
For countries outside the immediate theatre of war, the conflict’s consequences are already becoming visible in higher fuel prices, tighter shipping conditions and renewed anxiety over supply chains.
For African economies in particular, another sustained energy shock could raise transport costs, worsen food inflation and place fresh strain on public finances.
Although the G7 meeting may offer a forum for consultation, diplomats privately concede that the ministers are unlikely to emerge with a plan capable of decisively shaping events on the ground.
Instead, the summit may serve more as a test of whether America’s allies can still influence U.S. strategy at all — or whether they are simply left to manage the global fallout from decisions made in Washington.
