Less than half of Ivory Coast’s cocoa exports can currently be traced back to their origin farms, raising concerns about the country’s ability to comply with incoming European Union anti-deforestation regulations that threaten to reshape global commodity trade.
A new analysis published by non-profit organisation Trase found that only 48 percent of Ivory Coast’s cocoa exports in 2024 could be traced to the farming cooperatives that produced the beans.
The figure has shown little improvement since the group’s previous assessment two years ago, despite mounting pressure from European regulators and international chocolate manufacturers.
The findings come ahead of the implementation of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which is scheduled to take effect in December.
Under the new law, EU importers of commodities such as cocoa, coffee, soy, palm oil and timber will be required to prove that products entering the bloc were not produced on land linked to deforestation.
Companies will also have to trace commodities back to the specific plots where they were grown.
Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, supplies more than one-third of global cocoa output and relies heavily on the European market, with around 66 percent of its cocoa exports destined for EU countries.
According to Trase, a major obstacle to compliance is the widespread use of indirect supply chains involving multiple intermediaries between farmers and exporters.
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“The prevalence of indirect supplies of cocoa and the resulting lack of visibility into its origins makes it very difficult for companies to address issues such as deforestation or child labour,” the organisation said.
The Ivorian government has attempted to improve oversight by introducing digital systems aimed at tracking cocoa purchases and exports more effectively.
However, analysts say implementation challenges remain significant in a sector dominated by smallholder farmers and fragmented trading networks.
Environmental groups have welcomed the EU regulation as a landmark step in combating climate change and forest destruction.
But the rules have also faced criticism from exporting countries and trading partners, who argue that compliance could prove expensive and administratively burdensome.
Several governments, including Brazil, Indonesia and the United States, have urged Brussels to delay or soften the regulation.
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The EU has already postponed implementation of the law twice amid lobbying from businesses and partner countries.
The issue has become increasingly sensitive for Ivory Coast, where decades of cocoa expansion have contributed heavily to forest loss.
According to Trase, 79 percent of the country’s forests were lost or degraded between 2000 and 2024, with cocoa farming accounting for nearly half of deforestation during much of that period.
Although overall deforestation rates have slowed in recent years, analysts warn this is partly because little natural forest remains.
Environmental experts consider deforestation one of the leading drivers of climate change after fossil fuel emissions.
The cocoa sector also remains under international scrutiny over allegations of child labour and unsustainable farming practices.
Industry observers say failure to meet EU traceability requirements could disrupt exports from Ivory Coast and increase pressure on cocoa traders and chocolate manufacturers operating in Europe.
At the same time, stricter regulations may accelerate efforts across West Africa to modernise agricultural supply chains and improve environmental monitoring systems.
Analysts say the coming months will be critical as exporters, governments and international buyers race to prepare for the EU rules before the December deadline.
