Kenya’s avocado production is expected to grow in 2026, but uncertainties over export routes could temper gains, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.
The report, published April 7, forecasts Kenya’s avocado harvest at 727,000 tonnes for 2026, a 4.8 percent increase over the previous year. This would mark a second consecutive year of growth following a decline in 2024.
The USDA attributed the rise to the maturation of newly planted orchards and improvements in farm management and quality control. Since 2020, the area under avocado cultivation in Kenya has expanded at a compound annual growth rate of roughly 6 percent, supported by government initiatives including seedling and fertilizer subsidies, as well as the designation of avocados as a priority export crop.
Kenya benefits from two harvest seasons annually, giving it a competitive edge in global markets. The main season runs from March to August, while a smaller harvest typically occurs from October to December.
Export challenges remain
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For the 2026 marketing year, the USDA expects avocado exports to rebound to around 130,000 tonnes, after shipments fell 23.4 percent to 121,000 tonnes in 2025. The previous year’s decline was linked to quality issues from premature harvesting and significant shipping disruptions along the Red Sea and Suez Canal, Kenya’s main corridor to European markets.
The USDA highlighted that attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial vessels in 2025 increased security risks, forcing shipping companies to reroute vessels away from the Suez Canal.
A Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report published in January noted that export capacity had been constrained by a near doubling of transit times to Europe due to the Red Sea crisis, alongside a surge in shipping costs.
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With rising tensions in the Persian Gulf in early 2026, further disruptions to maritime traffic in the Red Sea remain a concern, leaving the outlook for Kenya’s avocado exports uncertain, analysts said.
The USDA report also pointed to the ongoing adoption of improved cultivation practices as a key factor in maintaining yield growth. Farmers have gradually increased irrigation, pest management, and post-harvest handling techniques, boosting both quantity and quality.
Despite these gains, exporters face pressure from global competition, shipping costs, and the ongoing security risks along key maritime routes. Europe remains Kenya’s largest avocado market, accounting for the bulk of exports, while new markets in Asia and the Middle East are being explored to diversify trade.
Avocados are a critical export crop for Kenya, supporting rural livelihoods and contributing significantly to foreign exchange earnings. The government has emphasized both quantity and quality as priorities, encouraging farmers to meet international standards to retain market access.
As global demand for avocados continues to rise, Kenya aims to capitalize on its dual-season advantage and favorable climate. However, geopolitical and logistical challenges in export corridors could influence how much of the increased production reaches international markets in 2026.
