The United Kingdom economy grew by 0.5 percent in February, far outpacing expectations, according to preliminary data released by the Office for National Statistics, but economists warned the strong reading is unlikely to persist amid rising global uncertainty.
The monthly expansion was significantly higher than the 0.1 percent growth forecast in a Reuters poll, with gains recorded across services and production, both up 0.5 percent, while construction rose 1 percent.
The rebound followed modest growth of 0.1 percent in January, suggesting some underlying resilience in the economy at the start of the year.
However, analysts cautioned that the data is backward-looking and may not reflect current conditions, particularly after the escalation of conflict in the Middle East at the end of February, which has since reshaped global economic expectations.
Economists said the February figures likely capture activity before the full impact of higher energy prices, tighter financial conditions and weakened sentiment fed through the economy.
“I’m not really sure it’s reflective of actual conditions in the economy,” said George Brown, senior economist at Schroders, adding that labour market weakness and rising unemployment above 5 percent suggest softer underlying momentum.
The stronger-than-expected GDP print comes as policymakers and investors reassess the UK’s growth trajectory in light of heightened global risks.
The International Monetary Fund has warned that the UK could be among the advanced economies most affected by the Middle East conflict, given its reliance on imported energy.
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The Fund has already cut its 2026 growth forecast for Britain to 0.8 percent, down from a previous projection of 1.3 percent.
Economists say the main transmission channel is energy prices, with the UK particularly exposed as a net importer of oil and gas. Higher global prices are expected to feed into inflation, squeeze household incomes and weigh on business investment.
Attention is now turning to inflation data due on April 22, which is expected to show a further rise to around 3.3 percent, up from 3 percent in February.
Rising price pressures are complicating the outlook for the Bank of England, which had previously been expected to begin easing interest rates as inflation moved closer to its 2 percent target.
That path now appears less certain, with some analysts suggesting that renewed inflationary pressure could force the central bank to delay cuts or even consider further tightening later in the year.
“The situation on the ground is probably not quite like that,” said analysts, noting that weakening sentiment, tighter financial conditions and global uncertainty are likely to weigh on output in the months ahead.
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While February’s growth offers a short-term boost to economic data, economists broadly agree that the UK’s outlook is increasingly dependent on how long global energy disruptions and geopolitical tensions persist.
